Dick Morris, who has a horrid track record with political predictions, simply can’t fathom any of the current GOP frontrunners garnering the presidential nomination.? As such, he’s holding out?for a dark horse conservative to consolidate the Right.? Says Morris:
“IT’S getting to the point where the conservative – dominant – wing of the Republican Party needs to take out a want ad in the newspaper or post a listing on Craigslist.com to find a candidate for president. In the field taking shape before our eyes, none of the top four contenders is likely to satisfy their delicate palates – made more arrogant and discerning by decades of victories.
Rudy Guiliani? Pro-choice, pro-affirmative action, pro-gay rights, pro-immigration, pro-gun control Rudy? Righties will vote for him only if they have lobotomies first. Remember how the New York City Council prohibited the Boy Scouts from meeting on city property because they wouldn’t let in gay scoutmasters? Rudy let it happen.
Yes. There is a war going on and of course Rudy Guiliani is the man we should have had all along running Homeland Security. Obviously, he is the candidate Osama would least like to see in the White House. But has the religious right so abandoned its draconian agenda that it is willing to elect its ideological opposite president? Don’t bet on it.
Sen. John McCain? The McCain of the Kennedy-McCain bill to let illegal immigrants become citizens? Of the “anti-torture” bill to handcuff our agents when they question terrorists? Of the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance bill that the right wing hates? Of the Lieberman-McCain anti-global-warming bill that addresses a problem the right doesn’t believe in? That John McCain for president? The right wing can’t tolerate his apostasy even if he is the pro-life candidate that Rudy isn’t.
Mitt Romney, who was pro-life and then switched to pro-choice when he ran to become Massachusetts governor and now is switching back again as he runs for president? The Mitt Romney who said “I will protect and defend the right of Massachusetts women to choose?” The Romney who has flip-flopped on gay issues? Will the right wing back him? No way.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich? A man who has never valued the right-wing social agenda?
And then there are the personal lives – the only one of these guys who hasn’t had multiple wives is the Mormon – a church that’s viewed dimly by lots of conservative Christians.
Conservatives may think they are going to vote for Rudy, McCain, Newt or Romney – but wait until the negative ads start running.
Part of the problem is that the agenda of the evangelical side of the party has expanded beyond religious issues. Somehow, the Christian right’s litmus tests have widened to include opposition to illegal immigration, affirmative action and gun control along with antipathy to gay marriage and abortion.
In the flush of victories since 1980, the movement has come to expect candidates to toe the line of their agenda . . . and to reject those who don’t.
But the Republicans have to nominate somebody and the Christian right has to have a candidate. Who will it be? We don’t have any idea, hence the want ad. Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is articulate, a former Baptist Minister and an innovator. He even lost 100 pounds. But another Arkansas governor? Give us a break!
Maybe Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas. Senator who? Or Rep. Duncan Hunter of California or former Virginia Gov. James Gilmore.
Or whoever answers the ad.”
What Morris doesn’t seem to realize is that, thanks to a number of strategic moves and chance occurrences, movement conservatives don’t really have anyone to coalesce around.? The GOP adores heirs apparent, but all the crown princes and princesses who could’ve laid claim to the throne — Dick Cheney, Jeb Bush, and Condi Rice — chose not to run.? And Newt has stated that he plans to wait until Fall ’07 to make a decision, a sure indicator that he plans to be kingmaker and not king.? That leaves Rudy Giuliani as the Eisenhower-style national hero in the race, and John McCain as the old warhorse who can claim it’s “his turn” to be nominated.? And with both McCain and Mitt Romney spending the past year aggressively scooping up donors and talent, the “Big 3″ are now the only 3 candidates with the capacity to raise the necessary cash to compete for the nomination.?
Do each of them seem to have a variety of characteristics that would normally make them DOA in GOP primaries?? Of course.? But at the end of the day, somebody has to win.? Which is why one of the Big 3 will be nominated, whether it comports with conventional wisdom or not.
January 9th, 2007 at 12:06 am
Wow I’m not a Dick Morris fan by any means but he makes a good point. Kinda begs the question: What’s most important to the conservative wing of the GOP? Finding their ideal candidate, or winning in 2008?
January 9th, 2007 at 12:15 am
I think winning will be most important due to the state of the Congress.
Had Republicans kept control of the Congress this year, it’s possible conservatives would’ve sat 2008 out, assuming that we could weather four years of Hillary with a GOP Congress. I’ve actually seen this very reasoning on prominent conservative blogs, or at least I did before the election. Now it’s clear to most conservatives that losing the White House means total Democratic control of the government. After a year of Pelosi, conservatives will be asking themselves which candidate is most electable.
January 9th, 2007 at 12:16 am
“And Newt has stated that he plans to wait until Fall ‘07 to make a decision, a sure indicator that he plans to be kingmaker and not king.”
Dave, there is nothing sure about the completely unfounded conspiracy theory that Newt Gingrich wants to play “kingmaker” in 2008. Gingrich’s strategy is the best way for him to enter the race. In order for him to win the nomination, he needs to run an issues-first candidacy, so as to dodge any criticism that his candidacy is an example of ambition. He needs to differentiate himself from the other candidates that way, and the best way to prove himself is through a late-entry. Questions about his fundraising and organization abilities within this strategy is completely ignoring his opening of the American Solutions for Winning the Future PAC which he has said he hopes will create a movement larger than GOPAC.
Given that Gingrich doesn’t want to be President just to be President, and that he wants to drastically re-direct the country through real change, announcing early would only guarantee that he would have to put up with the non-issues crud that the other candidates are dealing with right now (and even more so, soon). By not entering formally, but essentially doing everything a candidate would be doing (and more so, see: Fox News Specials/Appearances, Radio talk show, newsletters, Meet the Press, countless interviews) allows him to focus on issues, not political positioning. Not to mention, if he were to announce, he would have to forfit a lot of his publicity, since networks wouldn’t want to be accused of helping one candidate more so than any other.
Chuck Todd of the National Journal agrees, saying “should [Gingrich] stay with his timetable of announcing very late (as far as this calendar is concerned), around Labor Day ’07. He’ll be new and old at the same time; he’ll dominate the media like no one else can (he’s a great interview), and he’ll be surprisingly engaging on the trail.” And that’s exactly the idea.
I hope the other commentators on this website read this message as well, especially Kavon, whose writing I have the uptmost respect for.
Steve Kielt
January 9th, 2007 at 1:36 am
Wow… Thank you for your kind words Steve. I am sincerely honored that you would take time out of your day to come to Race 4 2008.
I am somewhat worried that Newt is selling himself short with this strategy. Mainly because he will be so far behind in the money game by then. I also do not believe that he will be allowed to participate in the GOP debate in May, where he could really shine.
I really believe that if Newt was running a traditional campaign with an exploratory committee, campaign hires, fundraising, etc…, that he would be a solid #3 right now (ahead of Mitt) and be within striking distance of McCain for the #2 slot (Rudy leads in most polls these days).
That being said… If anyone can pull it off it will be Newt. Regardless of what happens in the 2008 race, this country needs Newt right now.
January 9th, 2007 at 4:53 am
“And then there are the personal lives – the only one of these guys who hasn’t had multiple wives is the Mormon …”
Now that is some irony.
January 9th, 2007 at 6:03 am
Condi Rice is a movement conservative ?? The Pro-Choice Condi Rice ?? Next candidate please.
January 9th, 2007 at 7:45 am
My God–if Newt is the candidate, the Dems win the white house. I like Newt’s ideas but the American people hate him. Look at the polls,it is not as if Newt is an unknown. I don’t want a Dem in the white house.
January 9th, 2007 at 10:44 am
A complete side not here. I was curious about Senate races in 2008 and what the chances were of the Republicans regaining the Senate chamber and how those races might affect the 2008 Presidential race so I went to the NRSC website. That must be one depressing group individuals right now because the website does not look like it has been touched since 8 Nov 06. Still lists Chafee as a Republican Senator. I know the results sucked but its time to pull up the boot straps and work towards 08!
January 9th, 2007 at 11:05 am
Well, on the GOP side the most vulnerable Senators are usually listed as Allard from CO, Sununu from NH, Coleman from my beloved Minnesocold (currently 27 degrees here on the tundra), Gordon Smith from OR, and Susan Collins from ME. In addition, there are potential GOP retirements in VA and NM.
A GOP candidate that can break the Red State/Blue State template can pull these Seantors over the finish line and perhaps gain ground in LA, and MT & IA (with the right candidates).
If we go with the Red State Strategy…
January 9th, 2007 at 11:15 am
IMHO the 2008 Presidential election in the wonderfully warm Granite State (was 71 this past Saturday) will truly be a local issues election. This may not be the case in the primaries and here is why I say that. With the Democratic take-over of the state legislature there are going to be some extremely unpopular propositions brought up. If the local Democrats abandon their campaign pledges (almost all ran on local republican platforms) NH could see a very large anti-Democrat vote come 2008. Again, I do not see this having a major affect on the primary but when you have a state with more registered independents than either major party and those independents being allowed to vote in either primary you never can tell what is going to happen.
January 9th, 2007 at 11:51 am
On the subject of Dick Morris and his views on 2008, I find it interesting that each time he is a guest on any Fox News show, his book CONDI VS HILLARY is under his name.
Rather than appearing as a cheerleader for Condi, he seems to be going back to his roots of looking at candidates and sizing up their chances.
There will be the Republican candidate, and a race between a right-wing candidate, and the maverick candidate; making the 2008 race a real fight for a winner.
With 10 Republicans with various political records running, with national polls taking a test of how voters think and who they want to run, the subject of whether Condi will run
keeps coming up.
For example, Steve has mentioned that the HEIR APPARENTS have said they are not running. That may be true for VP Cheney, but right now, Secretary of State Rice has her
hands full with Middle East issues in Lebanon, Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. She is also trying to settle the N Korean crisis and bringing them to the
6-party talks, and finding a new person to take over as UN ambassador and get them confirmed. Condi is a work horse, not a show horse; she has been using her
diplomatic skills to bring people together to write off Iraq DEBT (you might remember Jim Baker on his trips to help settle the demands by Kuwait and other nations).
All of this is under the working relationship which Condi has maintained with President Bush. She is his NUMBER 1 adviser right now, and over the past 6 years, she
has stood loyal to the President, seeking to help on international matters.
The new buzz in Washington DC is why is Negroponte with his 40 years of experience in the Foreign Relations Department moving over to be Condi’s deputy.
Consider this:
If the polls continue to show clear support for Secretary Rice to run, and if the early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and S Carolina show support for her,
then why not hand off the Secretary of State post to Negroponte in late 2007 or early 2008? (Even a few Democrats are talking about this.)
The MONEY GAME issue is another issue. With the 80% NAME ID which Condi Rice has now, and with her high job approval numbers, she does not have to spend millions to
become known to the voters. So she could organize donors easy, set up an office easy, and attract money quickly. Most of the work has been done by grassroots groups
in various states, and http://www.Thinkcondi.net is just one of groups.
The race for 2008 is still wide-open. A few events are planned for 2007 which will test the viability of whether Condi should run for president or not.
But right now, she is working for our President and for our nation instead of trying to build up her own reputation and portfolio. When she speaks,
the world knows she is speaking on behalf of the President, and can make deals on his behalf. That is her job as Secretary of State, in the same manner as
Colin Powell or Madeline Albright.
January 9th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
Debbie – I must assume you are a strong Condi supporter yourself. And I have no problem, whatsoever, with that. She certainly has foreign policy experience (more than I think any other candidate on either side of the aisle, in fact). She also has great name recognition and most of the country loves her even as she is the front-woman for all the Bush polices the country seems to loathe.
I understand she would not need to spend lots of money on name recognition but how many big time donors are going to be left come late 2007? She is still going to have to run a fierce contest and put forth a domestic policy (she really has no domestic experience to speak of). I, for one, do believe she has served in enough supporting roles already. I think she could be a viable candidate for Pres or VP, even though I still believe she has been one of the best Sec. of State this country has ever seen.
I would hate for this country to lose Dr. Rice but if she is not the Pres or VP what role could she possibly fill that would not be a demotion from SecState?
January 9th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
What does race42008 have against Arkansas governors? I’ll be doing a post on Huckabee early tomorrow that I really hope everyone will come and read. You might even be surprised a little. (no assurances, though.
January 9th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
I, for one, have nothing against Republican Arkansas governors. I know that Huckabee has very strong conservative credentials but I fear he has waited too long to make a serious move. He knew he was term-limited and could have spent much of his time preparing for an 08 run. While, it seems obvious that he does still plan to run I fear he may be out of the top tier already. With his conservative credentials I think he has the ability to pull off a SC upset but with all the heavy hitters already lining up behind their dogs has Gov Huckabee missed his opportunity to be the “real conservative” of the race?
January 9th, 2007 at 2:21 pm
I will not speak for our other writers (people forget that there are 8 writers total here each with their own preferences), but I really felt that Huckabee was a sleeper pick in the ’08 race until the other candidates accomplished so much more to lay the ground work for their runs in 2006 than him.
He could still make it interesting though. I have met Gov. Huckabee and spoke with him for a short time (I even heard him play bass). I can tell you he’s a fantastic candidate in person.
January 9th, 2007 at 2:31 pm
Kavon – if Huckabee has missed the boat on his 08 run what role do you see him playing during the primaries, if any? Do you see a VP nod or perhaps a Cabinet position after the Republicans hold onto the White House?
January 9th, 2007 at 3:52 pm
Kavon,
You met Huckabee? How/when did that happen?
RayB,
I’m increasingly doubtful that Huckabee will even run. He did nothing of any significance in terms of raising money, putting together an organization or getting any national name recognition (how many people outside of Arkansas and one’s that aren’t political junkies have ever heard of him?). With that said, I don’t see what value he’d add to Romney, McCain or Giuliani as VP. Plus, the Club for Growth seems to have their knives out for him so he could cause more problems than benefits.
January 9th, 2007 at 5:29 pm
RayB, yes, I am a Condi Rice supporter and I was very pleased with the November 2006 Gallup poll showing Rudy Guiliani at 28%, John McCain at 26%, and Condi at 13%.
Consider this, if Rudy stumblies because the NY Daily News story or his ex-wife or failure to win over the conservatives who vote in the Iowa Caucus, who will the
second choice? Same for McCain. A few writers have mentioned he will be 72, older than Reagan seeking his second term. It is not a question of whether Senator
McCain can serve as president, it was more of a question whether he will serve his entire term or be able to seek a second. Steve Thomma was the writer, so he formed
the AGE FACTOR. Then Thomma pondered the question goes to who would be best as VP, someone younger, energetic, and ready to step in. So my thinking is Condi Rice, she is
the perfect VP. But as I have stated, I prefer her as president.
January 9th, 2007 at 6:30 pm
Ray,
Rumors are that he might challenge Pryor for his Senate seat.
LJ,
Living 2 hours from the Iowa border affords a political junkie many opportunities.
January 10th, 2007 at 9:26 am
Kavon,
I sent you an email about Huckabee on the Imus show this morning. He seemed willing to throw his hat in the ring. Imus asked him straight up and he did NOT circumvent the question. He answered it by saying he was “seriously considering” running. I thought he had an interesting point on primaries should be ideas first money second (that is how he would prefer things happen) versus get the money then come up with ideas. I can’t say that I disagree with his assessment.
Deb,
I like Condi as well. I don’t think anyone can match her on foreign expertise. I do disagree with her on abortion but I am confident she would appoint conservative judges so that point becomes moot to a point, at least in my book. I just think that VP would be a demotion for her from SecState. The woman certainly enjoys serving her country and for that she will be appreciated.
January 10th, 2007 at 10:59 am
I was at his book party in Manhattan last night and I think he’s in. He said if people hated his book and used it for “bonfire fodder,” then maybe he would re-think the idea of running!
January 13th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
Condi Rice would be a very active VP, in the same manner of Daddy Bush from 1981 to 1989; both using their world-wide relationships to help with foreign affairs, internatinal security and trade deals. The demotion would be for her to give all of her connections around the world and go back to Stanford. What a waste of her assets! If she is selected as the Republican candidate, of course I would be pleased, and yet, the buzz from major news pundits has been high praise for her as VP in 2008. She is youthful, energetic, and brilliant; with high name ID and high job approval.
If you have listened to Talk Radio in the past few days, you have no doubt heard Boxer getting clobbered for trying to drag Condi as not having children and not risking immediate family in this war. Nice to see Laura Ingraham, Rush, Hannity, Bill O’Reilly and others defending Condi Rice as an ICON of the women’s movement. It was joyful to listen to the radio instead of all the Dems and liberal yackers on TV trying to bash Condi.