Backing up SurveyUSA‘s seminal 50 state poll, as well as the analysis of R4’08 writers DaveG and myself, the Investor Business Daily January 2007 poll confirms that John Edwards is the strongest Democratic opponent that the GOP could face. Former Senator Edwards does especially well against Sen. John McCain:
A new IBD/TIPP poll gives Republican front-runners Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) and Rudy Giuliani an edge over top Democratic contenders and shows that John Edwards might be their toughest opponent.
In a potential presidential matchup, McCain led the former one-term senator from North Carolina and 2004 vice presidential nominee by 44% to 43% but had a more comfortable margin over the two Democratic heavyweights expected to run. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton trailed McCain 48% to 41% while Illinois Sen. Barack Obama was down 48% to 36%. In a matchup against Giuliani, the former New York mayor, Clinton and Edwards both trailed by 5%, (48%-43% and 47%-42%, respectively) while Obama lagged by 13% (49%-36%). But as in the matchup against McCain, Edwards showed a bit better ability than the former first lady to pull in Republicans and independents.
While Clinton and Obama have been cast as the Goliaths of the Democratic field, “when you look at the numbers, they’re not the strongest in the general election,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
The poll of 951 adults for IBD by TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, was conducted Jan. 2-4.
“After six weeks of Hillary-Obama, Hillary-Obama, what you have is just further confirmation that Edwards is a major player in all this,” said independent pollster John Zogby. Recent polls of Democratic voters in Iowa and New Hampshire also have shown significant support for Edwards. He’s spent a lot of time in those early primary states.
This is good news for the GOP in my opinion if Edwards’ strong primary polling numbers can hold out. Former Sen. Edwards’ strong general election numbers are a result of him getting a free pass from the MSM in 2004. Once Americans get to know the real John Edwards (especially how he earned his millions), I am fairly confident what their final judgment will be.
Basically there were four Dem candidates that could make inroads into Red State American, potentially breaking the Red State/Blue State template, and thereby posing perhaps a mortal threat to any ’08 GOP nominee: Clinton, Warner, Bayh, and Richardson. Two of those four have already gone by the wayside, and Richardson is an extreme longshot (despite the fact that he may be the most qualified Democrat in America to be POTUS).
John Edwards, a latter-day William Jennings Bryan, as the Democratic nominee is something we Republicans should hope for.
Update: Larry Kudlow shares the assessment of John Edwards as a “sure loser“.
January 6th, 2007 at 4:41 pm
The only way Edwards wins is if the GOP puts up a nominee who is a fiscal liberal and who is so socially conservative that he is just anathema to the secular voters of the north and west. In that case, the candidates will be a wash on fiscal issues, and those voters will just vote for the guy who shares their social values, while Edwards’ populism wins Ohio, WV, and a few other border states to get to 270. This is the primary argument against putting a Bush clone up against Edwards.
If the GOP nominates a pro-market, pro-trade, fiscally prudent candidate who has a bit more of a libertarian streak on social matters than Bush, northern and western voters will find the GOP ticket far more amenable to their economic concerns and at least acceptable on social issues. Edwards loses tons of territory in the north and west under this scenario, even if he picks up a few border states. McCain’s biggest problem against Edwards, other than the young/old thing, is that both are seen as economically bossy. McCain needs to promise he won’t repeal the tax cuts and stop making moves that feed the notion that he has a penchant for regulation.
I find Hillary far scarier than Edwards. The Clintons have positions the north and west like, but have learned how to use platitudes and cultural cues to keep the peripheral south in line. There are all sorts of ways she could get to 270.
January 7th, 2007 at 3:31 pm
Because of Edwards’ “southern charm” and the sympathetic nature of his clients, attacks on his legal career might not play as well as you expect.
January 8th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
This statement is incorrect:
“Once Americans get to know the real John Edwards (especially how he earned his millions), I am fairly confident what their final judgment will be.”
The reason the GOP and media did not “expose” Edwards in how he made his millions is because he specialized in children who had been hurt or mangled by products or bad healthcare. I saw a report on what he did back in 2004, and his winning compensation for the little girl’s family from the corporation was quite touching.
So trying to dig up dirt on Edwards is next to impossible!
It would have already been done… We’ll have to fight him on the issues, that we must cut taxes even further so the wealthiest invest more and create jobs here in the U.S. THat the Republicans have a plan for school vouchers, that Iraq was well worth it and that things like solar and wind energy will never work. We need to drill in our National Parks, in ANWAR and on the Florida Coast. We need to build the 150 coal plants VP Cheney wants so we can be truly energy-independent.
And we must say that New Orleans is a failed city, that it should never be rebuilit in the lowest-lying areas. It’s just another accident waiting to happen. Plus there is no more money left to fix and raise the levees. We really need to abandon New ORleans. These are the issues we Republicans have.
And what is Edwards’ view on immigration? Foreign aid to Mexico so that the 90 micro-regions that are emptying out can restore their economy and keep their people home?
A pipedream! We need to build a Fence even if it does cost tens of billions to build and billions more to patrol.
Attacking Edwards personally unfortunately is impossible. Now if were the cocaine snorter Obama or Billary, that’s another matter!
January 8th, 2007 at 2:52 pm
I Like Mike,
That is hardly the only type of case that Edwards handled. There is much more out there than that, and what there is specifically deals with one of Edwards’ main focuses: Healthcare.
Do a little more digging and you will be surprised by what you find.