Yesterday, Kavon linked to the most recent Iowa poll conducted by Research 2000 and KCCI. It has many surprising elements to it, particularly on the Democratic side. Obama is tied for first with Edwards at 22% and Hillary is down at a mere 10%. On the Republican side though, the numbers correspond to most of the recent national polls we’ve seen in the past few months. McCain and Giuliani are dueling it out for 1st in the high 20′s and Romney continues to hover around 10% or so. The fact that Romney has a better organization than McCain in the state and particularly lived there during the 2006 campaign, I don’t understand how Romney’s numbers are barely moving at all. At the same time, given that McCain not only skipped the Iowa caucuses in 2000 but he also isn’t shy about his opposition to ethanol subsidies, the fact that he is leading the pack is quite surprising. McCain and Romney have the best organizations in Iowa and we all know that in the caucuses a strong organization helps you win. Which brings me to Rudy Giuliani.
Even with all of his recent staff moves, I have remained somewhat doubtful that he was really going to mount a serious run for the Presidency. According to Republius, Rudy plans to give the keynote speech at New Hampshire State Republican Committee next month and he has secured the services of ace RNC operative Mike DuHaime. DuHaime ran much of Bush’s 04 Northeast operation and I highly doubt he would’ve signed with Rudy if he wasn’t going to seriously run. Rudy will be up in New Hampshire and will undoubtedly try to get more endorsements and staff. This led me to think that while Rudy might be running, he has no organization in Iowa at all. Iowa and South Carolina are the most conservative primaries in the country and perhaps Rudy doesn’t think he has a chance to win the state. If he focuses his strength on New Hampshire, he could have a good shot. NH is traditionally the prime ground of insurgent candidates. This would more or less be the McCain 2000 strategy and we all know how well that worked out.
There are several problems here, though. Rudy is polling better in Iowa than he is in New Hampshire. Rudy has near universal name recognition but NH is McCain country. He’s been a good 10-15 points ahead of his closest competition (Rudy) for going on 2 years now. Also, since NH is right next to Massachusetts, almost everyone there knows who Romney is too. It’s certainly possible (even probable) that Rudy will begin to put together an organization in Iowa early next year, but the longer he waits the more people that McCain and Romney will snatch up. I heard from a friend that is connected to the Iowa GOP that a lot of people would be interested in joining a Giuliani campaign but he’s done no outreach in the state and most people are signing with McCain, Romney, Brownback, even Gilmore. The Caucus Cooler blog even speculated that Rudy had talked to McCain and Romney about “joining forces” whatever that means. [UPDATE: CC meant that Steve Scheffler, head of the Iowa Christian Alliance was talking about joining with McCain or Romney and not Rudy. Sorry about that.] One thing’s for sure, Rudy is running a very unorthodox campaign with huge risks.
December 23rd, 2006 at 3:11 pm
No one attached to the Bush administration, and that includes Tommy Thompson, is going to win the general election, not with the MSM dictating things. Condi can’t win the Southern states because she is a social moderate.
I like Newt, but only he knows what he’s going to do. Unfortunately, we are stuck with John McCain, (an opportunist), Rudy Giuliani, (a social liberal), and Mitt Romney, (a flip-flopper).
If conservatives rally behind one of the 2nd tier candidates, like a Jim Gilmore or Duncan Hunter, maybe we can move some numbers, but it doesn’t look good for any of the conservative candidates.
Michael
December 23rd, 2006 at 3:37 pm
We didn’t phrase that post right. It’s meant to read the Steve Scheffler, head of Iowa Christian
Alliance is talking about joining forces with McCain and Romney. Not Rudy.
Thanks for the link though.
December 23rd, 2006 at 3:49 pm
CC,
Has you heard anything more on the rumor that Rudy will announce his Iowa staff after the holidays?
December 23rd, 2006 at 3:49 pm
Condi can win Southern states, and if the polls were taken, it would show I am correct.
Alabama loves her, that is her home state where she grew up.
California Republicans are also selecting her as their top choice.
Too moderate? Well, she is a 2nd Amendment supporter, unlike Rudy. That issue hurts him and might
also harm McCain for the NRA supporters.
She is a fiscal conservative and her budgetary skills were successful while she was Provost at
Stanford. Who are the hard-line conservatives going to back? No clear frontrunnner on that issue.
George Allen was a strong conservative leader, highly favored in polls by conservatives. Where is
he today? Do you think his supporters are going to Rudy or McCain? But I believe more of them
would consider Condi as their second choice rather than going to others who are 1% in the polls.
Condi also has 57% job approval. If anyone from the Bush Adminstration is going to inherit any
good will and be supported, it is going to Condi. No one else can be called the heir apparent
since no one else can claim to be working hand in hand with President Bush. With Laura Bush
speaking highly on the issue of Condi for president, she might have more impact on the 2008
debate than one little person like me.
December 23rd, 2006 at 3:52 pm
I had the first comments on this site. Someone is censoring me and I think that is anti-democratic.
Who is afraid of my words and ideas? Is someone so offended by me coming to speak in favor of
Condi that some powerful person had to erase my first comment?
This might get erased too. Are the rest of you so upset with me that you all favor me being
censored and erased?
December 23rd, 2006 at 4:50 pm
The problem is, Condi is not a candidate and she is too attached to Bush. She will not and cannot win in 2008.
December 23rd, 2006 at 5:27 pm
Debbie,
I have asked you nicely several times not to hijack threads with Condi-talk when she is not specifically mentioned in the post. I have told you repeatedly that I would start deleting your comments without warning if you continued in this.
This is my site, and I set the rules. The first rule of R4’08 is that there will be no Condi-propoganda without her being mentioned in the story. The second rule of R4’08 is… there will be no Condi-propoganda without her being mentioned in the story!!!
Debbie, I consider you my friend, and I have complied with your wishes regarding 2008 info that you have given me that you wish to remain confidential. I ask now that you respect my wishes on my site and stop with the thread-jacking.
I will be happy to help you set up your own Condi website if you wish. I’ll even do all of the setup work for you. But I ask you once again to please respect my wishes regarding commenting.
December 23rd, 2006 at 5:45 pm
This post is pretty much inaccurate.
http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061223/NEWS09/612230342/1001
December 23rd, 2006 at 5:56 pm
Hotline had this earlier in the week so I don’t know what LJ is referring to. Rudy is running and running in Iowa.
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will announce at the beginning of the new year that he has secured staffs in both Iowa and New Hampshire and planned trips to both states (Hotline sources, 12/19). Also, his fundraiser Roy Bailey said Giuliani “is considering creating a variation of the fundraising network set up by Bush, with more tiers of donors and a baseball theme.”
December 23rd, 2006 at 6:02 pm
Thanks Ravens Fan!
From that story:
December 24th, 2006 at 3:37 am
the bottom line is that if Iraq is not significantly in better shape by 2008 than it is now, any Republican will have a very difficult time winning the general election.
All this talk over social issues, fundraising, etc… is all a smokescreen.
If by November 2008, Iraq is in better shape, the violence has significantly decreased, US casualties have decreased and a good portion of US forces have some home, then the GOP nominee has a decent shot of winning.
If Iraq is the same, or as is quite possible worse, if US forces are still there in similar numbers and casualties are still on the level of 750-850 a year dead with 7500+ wounded, Reagan himself would find it extremely difficult to win.
This election will largely be decided by forces outside the respective candidate’s control. IE, Iraq, Iran, another Katrina like event, the Stock Market, economic data, a potential Foley like scandal, etc…
If the Dems are smart and pick Edwards or Obama, they should win the elction fairly comfortably. The idea that a 72 year old John McCain(and in all likelihood he’ll be the GOP nominee) would beat a polished, charismatic and well spoken and telegenic younger guy like an Obama or Edwards is hard to fathom.
Like the 2000 and 2004 elections were the GOP’s to lose, 2008 is shaping up as the Dem’s to lose.
December 24th, 2006 at 11:28 am
Kavon-
We saw the same article. We’ve heard rumblings about certain people but nothing solid.
We’ll let you know once we can get a hold of something.
December 24th, 2006 at 2:20 pm
Guiliani is playing all you for saps. He’s pulling in contributions to his campaign, which he will keep, knowing along he has NO chance of winning Iowa because he is anti-gun, pro-choice and pro-gay marriage. He is NOT running.
December 24th, 2006 at 4:27 pm
Thanks CC! Merry Christmas!
December 24th, 2006 at 8:02 pm
My point is that I was glad KCCI included Condi in their Iowa State poll.
I did thank you for posting that poll since I had not seen it.
With her at 4%, that is fine, since she is also higher than many other candidates.
Have a good Christmas too and 2007 will be a busy year for you and all of us.