I’ve given up analyzing the monthly GOP Bloggers online straw polls, as a) there’s very little change from month-to-month and b) the results vary so heavily on which websites link to them that it’s probably not a very accurate indicator of the level of support any given candidate actually has, even though the polls can be used for other things, like indicating relative levels of enthusiasm amongst the GOP base w/r/t to the various candidates, establishing trendlines, and so forth.?
That said, I do have to comment on one rather interesting finding in this month’s results.? Among the overall group, Newt received the most first-choice votes, with Rudy coming in second and Romney, third.? When breaking down the sample by age, these three candidates finished in the same order among all age groups except for the two youngest.? Among 25-34-year-olds, Romney finished first, Giuliani second, and Gingrich third.? The biggest surprise can be found in the subsample of voters aged 18-24, where Sam Brownback came in first, followed by Romney, Newt, and then Rudy.?
The ascent of Brownback and Romney among younger Republicans is interesting, and the fact that Brownback dominates the field among the youngest Republicans is quite perplexing.? Younger politically active types do tend to view the world through the prism of idealism; they are more ideological than their older counterparts who have been mugged by reality, as it were, and often seek purity in their candidates in both principle and personal life.? That to some extent would explain what we’re seeing here.? And that would explain Romney’s rise due to his efforts to market himself as an all-around conservative with an all-American private life.? But that doesn’t really shed a lot of light on Brownback’s numbers, given that the Kansas senator hasn’t been at the forefront on fiscal issues, hasn’t been particularly tough on illegal immigration, and hasn’t made a name for himself decrying the dangers of Islamist terrorism.? Pretty much all Brownback is known for is being a “culture warrior,” and one who is often accused of being a bit too “compassionate” on other sorts of issues.? The fact that he is cleaning up among the conservative youth vote, then, may send?a message about the future of American conservatism, one that a Goldwaterite like myself doesn’t necessarily see in a positive light.
Allow me to posit an explanation for the rise of the “Generation Brownback” conservatives.? The average age of the Gen-B conservative, according to this poll, would be about 21.? That would mean that the prototypical Gen-B member is likely a college-aged conservative who came of age politically right around the time of the 2000 election.? The first Republicanism?this voter?knew and was attracted to was that of the president, who preached a compassionate conservatism that sought to use government to do lots of things, as opposed to scaling government back from people’s lives.? It was also a conservatism rooted deeply in theological and moral principles, as opposed to the more skeptical, restrained view of previous generations of conservatives and Republicans on what government could and should do.?
And so it would make sense that those young people who were attracted to Republicanism and conservatism as first articulated by Team Bush would also be most inclined to support a fellow compassionate, big government conservative like Sam Brownback given the current field.? I further suspect that as the next GOP leader is likely to have a governing philosophy that is a bit different?from that of?the president, the Gen-B conservatives may end up being just an aberration and not the beginning of a trend, as the young conservatives and young liberals just now discovering the world of politics will end up casting their lots based on a somewhat different dichotomy.
December 20th, 2006 at 4:36 pm
Hmm, I qualify in the, what you call, “Gen-B Conservative Generation,” and I think you’ve pretty much hit the nail on the head here, Dave. I have hazy memories of rooting for Dole in ’96, mostly because my parents did, but I first really fell in love with politics during the 2000 elections while I was in high school. I was raised the son of a Baptist minister and am very passionate about my personal Christian walk, and up until I attended college, moral and theological issues definitely sat in the driver’s seat of my political, with managerial conservatism sitting in the backseat for the most part.
It wasn’t until I studied Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan and Newt Gingrich that I truly understood traditional American conservatism, especially in contrast with modern neo-conservatism. Most kids my age and younger are exactly in the place you say they are, and so Brownback and Romney would be the obvious top choices for them. While interesting from a sociocultural perspective, unfortunately, younger Americans are far less likely to actually get out and vote in primaries, so it’s primarily the preferences of the older folks that we need to keep our eyes on. It will be those modestly-wealthy, white, older men that are going to decide it. It does, however, raise disturbing questions about the direction of the GOP within the next 10-15 years, however. As much as I appreciate and value moral and theological conservatism, 2006 showed us just how dangerous they can be when taken to extreme at the expense of traditional governmental conservatism.
December 20th, 2006 at 4:53 pm
Thanks for your insight, Woody. I guess I’d sort of be one political generation behind the Bush conservatives. I was a Newt-generation Republican, attracted to the GOP due to the Contract with America, which of course was full of technocratic, reformist, budget-balancing, tax-cutting, market-oriented goodness (and not a lot of social stuff). And during the first election I paid attention to, 1992, I rooted for Ross, which further cements my status as a bean counter. And you could probably go back to a political generation before me and find the folks who came of age in the ’80s under Reagan and who were both fiscal AND social conservatives equally. And then you get the folks who first rooted for Nixon in the ’70s, who are probably now our Main Street types, and who will probably vote in the primaries far
more than any of our contemporaries.
December 20th, 2006 at 4:59 pm
I would not worry too much about the younger generation moving towards big government conservatism. I write for the University of Georgia’s only conservative newspaper, The Georgia Guarddawg, and almost all of these young conservatives are staunchly in favor of limited government. Remember, the young conservatives that are online and active on blogs are likely to have been trained well by their parents in Christian worldview and conservative principles. What I expect to see is a complete dedication to the culture war entwined with an understanding of the proper limited role of government in the next generation of conservative leaders.
December 20th, 2006 at 5:13 pm
[...] Original post by DaveG and software by Elliott Back [...]
December 20th, 2006 at 5:56 pm
Makes sense to me. I’m 20 and Romney is my guy…and Romney-type candidates rank highest among active Republicans in my age group that I know personally.
December 20th, 2006 at 6:40 pm
One final anecdote. A little known fact about Hillary (or perhaps it’s widely known) is that she started out her political life as a Goldwater Girl. She joined the College Republicans back in the ’60s because, according to her, she was a believer in individualism. This was before she was seduced by the Dark Side and became Darth Rodham. Anyway, the point is, nowadays the folks that seem to spearhead the GOP groups on campus appear to be mostly young people who are concerned about the values issues in our society. That is to say, back in the ’60s, young people became conservatives if they felt society needed to be more FREE. Today, young people identify as conservatives if they feel society needs to be more MORAL. This is important, because the shape of the political spectrum changes depending on the identity of its poles. So instead of a spectrum in which Right wants the state to do less and Left wants it to do more, we’ve moved towards a spectrum where Right wants the state to do some things and Left wants it to do other things. And as a great believer in human freedom and the inherent flaw of the state, I find such a development
quite depressing.
December 20th, 2006 at 8:46 pm
Hillary actually when to the dark side (good ole’ LBJ) just because another classmate got picked instead of her to represent Goldwater in school debate.
December 20th, 2006 at 9:30 pm
Peter,
Then maybe all you guys need to do is to pick her as the GOP nominee, and she will gladly take up Goldwaterism again!
December 21st, 2006 at 1:14 am
The reason Brownback is gaining so much support from young conservative students is because pro-life students like myself are sick and tired of being used by the Republican Party. Whether you like it or not, social conservatives are what brought in Pres Bush and held the Republican majority. Problem is, we didn’t see much results. We saw the Child Custody Protection Act pass, but then fail because cloture was not met. We saw the Unborn Child Pain Awareness Act fail. Bill Frist didn’t give us the time of day as Majority Leader, and turned his back on us by supporting embryonic stem-cell research. Bush talked a good game about defending marriage during the ’04 campaign, but once term #2 started, it was barely mentioned until the day before the fed amendment was being voted on.
Point is, the uprising generation of pro-lifers are not going to sell themselves out as easily as those in the pro-life movement have done before us. It is no longer enough just to say “I’m pro-life I’m pro-life” we want to actually see results. And the only candidate in 2008 that has produced results or at least fought for results is Sam Brownback. Romney has nothing but a pro-abortion past. McCain supported embryonic stem-cell research and would sign a Democrat-passed bill allowing the federal funding of stem-cell research in a heartbeat (while destroying tens of thousands of future heart-beats). Rudy G even supports partial-birth abortion, which any person with common-sense and is free of ignorance would consider blatant infanticide.
That is why Brownback is getting so much support from my generation.
And to make an assertion that young people don’t vote — you are out of your mind. Anyone who has worked on campaigns know that College Republicans are the backbone of any successful grassroots operation. So not only will we be voting, but we’ll be producing votes as well.
I consider myself a conservative. I like limited government, low taxes, and free trade. But protecting the unborn — 44,000,000+ of my generation — comes first. And I have no problem paying a little more in taxes, or not throwing out some illegals, so that some innocent lives will be saved and born into this awesome country in America and live the life the same type of life we all value (or do we)?
Billy Valentine
Chairman, Students for Brownback
http://www.studentsforbrownback.org
December 21st, 2006 at 3:14 am
Billy,
Sorry to break your tender little heart, but no politician is going to deliver what you want. The reason is simple. The American people are, by substantial majority, content with the Roe compromise, and that consensus is stable over time, and isnt going to be changing.
If you dont like this reality, then you need to change the hearts and minds of the people first – then the politics will follow. You will never succeed by trying to impose a solution on a people who dont support your solution.
Yes you are being used by all the Republicans who endlessly exploit this issue but then deliver nothing. Brownback will be no different. Even if he wanted to be different, he wont be able to, because the people are just not there.
December 21st, 2006 at 8:13 am
Tano,
You are obviously blinded by ignorance. Consistently, polls have shown that the majority of Americans support broad restrictions on abortion. 70% support parental notification laws. A vast majority of Americans supported the partial-birth abortion ban, which will be upheld as constitutional by the Supreme Court this June should Justice Kennedy vote the same way he did previously on the ban. The fact of the matter is, the majority of Americans do not support abortion-on-demand. Die-hard pro-abortionists are on the losing side of the issue. Look at how poorly EMILY’s List performed in the 2006 elections despite a great year for Democrats. Many pro-abortion Republicans were replaced by pro-life Democrats.
Its time to face reality, Tano: America is one supreme court justice away from overturning Roe. Even some of the most liberal jurists and legal thinkers will admit it is bad law with absolutely no constitutional backing.
Brownback supporters are making sure that we have the right guy in the White House to pick the right judge who will interpret the Constitution, not legislate from the bench.
December 21st, 2006 at 12:04 pm
Brownback has zero chance of winning a general election.
December 21st, 2006 at 3:34 pm
Billy,
I see you are an up and coming Republican. Quick draw on the insults. And a repetition by rote of the standard talking points.
Americans do support “partial birth” bans, but also exceptions for the health of the mother. Clinton promised to sign such a bill, but the Republicans preferred to have the issue rather than the law.
Americans do support restrictions on abortion, but restrictions are already in place. Americnas do not support bans on abortion, as does Brownback. As I said, the Roe compromise has broad and consistent support.
I disagree with your understanding of the Constituion. The Constitution lays out the permitted powers of the government, with all else being left to the free people to do for themselves. There is no Constitutional granting of power to the government to force a woman to bear a child that she doesnt with to bear. At least until such time as the fetus is to be considered a full human. Traditionally, personhood is recognized at birth, at least in the law. There may be disputes as to the timing, but this is not a Constitutional issue, but rather a matter of opinion. As I said, the Roe compromise on this issue is broadly supported by the people.
Somehow I suspect that many Republicans secretly fear the overturning of Roe. That would return the issue to the states, and the religous right would force Republicans in every state to go down to glorious defeat upholding an out-of-the-mainstream (and losing) position on the issue.