I know this has been a long time in coming, but I believe it was important to wait for the results of the midterm before making any drastic changes.
And drastic changes there are. No more George Allen-who once occupied the #3 position in these rankings. There have also been two additions in Duncan Hunter and Tommy Thompson.
So without further ado, here are the Race 4 2008 Power Rankings version 3.0:
1. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain (tie)
Rudy leads nearly every scientific and non-scientific poll of Republican voters when asked about 2008. Rudy also tops every poll of Republican voters when asked whether potential 2008 candidates are acceptable to them as a presidential nominee; and that support does not drop significantly even when they informed of his liberal social views. State-by-state polling shows Rudy to be ahead in the polls in every state except for NH, MI, and SC. The announcement of his exploratory committee cements his position here for the time being.
John McCain has the organization, the fame, the money, the allies, and the favors owed to him by fellow Republicans to keep him as a major force in the 2008 race. Since the midterm, the Arizona Maverick has seen his polling numbers increase to within the margin or error with Rudy. He is solidly ahead in the three early primary states of NH, MI, and SC (I was assured in private correspondence this week by a well known journalist that McCain is indeed solidly ahead in SC right now per internal candidate polling). However, it remains to be seen that when push comes to shove, GOP primary voters will indeed pull the lever for a candidate many of them simply don’t trust to lead their party or their country.
3 . Mitt Romney
I fully expect that the race will narrow into a 1A, 1B, and 1C race between Rudy, McCain, and Romney eventually. We are not there yet however.
As McCain has solidified his support among current Republican officeholders, Mitt seems to have run the field with the Republican Punditocracy (Hugh Hewitt, Michael Medved, Laura Ingraham) and the inside-the-beltway analysts.
We have yet to see that impact of that support in his polling numbers. However, it is still far too early to really hold that against him.
So many pundits have speculated on what will happen to Rudy’s numbers when the Republican rank-in-file find out about his past social views. However, hardly anyone acknowledges that Mitt will be the subject of targeted “swiftboatesque” campaigns to bring attention to his alleged changes of opinion on abortion and gay rights (groups in Michigan are already at work as we speak) as well. It remains to be seen how these efforts will effect Mitt’s nascent popularity.
Bottom line is that Romney is as well organized a candidate on either side of the aisle as you will find and has nowhere to go but up.
4. Newt Gingrich
Newt has recently announced that he is indeed interested in seeking the Republican nomination. However, his unorthodox plan of creating his own draft campaign based upon the principles of his book “Winning the Future” and waiting until Sept. 2007 to make a final decision has to make you wonder if he is in it for himself, or to play kingmaker. Of course, the Romney alliance rumors have been in full effect since this announcement. One has to wonder if keeping the nomination from John McCain is the primary goal.
5. Tommy Thompson
I’m sure this is the change that will cause the most controversy.
Thompson enters the Power Rankings at #5, which upon reflection is based more on projection than the current state of affairs. I do believe that Thompson is a sleeper candidate in the GOP field (which perhaps reflects more on the relative weakness of the GOP candidates as a whole more than anything.)
Thompson is perhaps the most popular politician in Wisconsin history (he could probably be elected Emperor there), having won an unheard of 4 terms. In 2000, Gov. Thompson left office to join the Bush Cabinet at HHS.
Tommy Thompson is a conservative without being an ideologue. He is very much in the mold of the Republican “Competent Executive” prototype in which Gov. Romney and Mayor Giuliani belong to in this field as well.
Republicans primary voters will like Thompson the more they find out about him. He is acceptable on the social issues (he holds the Frist position of being Pro-Life excepting stem cells), and is well known for his conservative triumphs in Welfare Reform (which became the model for the nation) and School Vouchers.
Thompson has been quite successful in the private sector and must be convinced that he will have the financial backing to make a serious run.
6. Mike Huckabee
Why did Gov. Huckabee fall from 4th to 6th? Mostly due to the fact that he has been in the headlines not for his organizational progress, but for “Gimmegate” (whether it’s fair or not).
It is still not too late for Gov. Huckabee, but the fact remains that Tommy Thompson is on the ground in Iowa looking to make hires while he is not.
7. & 8. Bill Frist and Sam Brownback
These two could be slipped into either spot. Frist has a solid organization with VOLPAC, however Brownback probably has more “‘mo’” due to his recent announcement. Both may be gunning for the Veep slot.
9. George Pataki
Gov. Pataki has had a horrible week with the mass defections from his staff (Caucus Cooler has been all over this story).
Pataki was always a long shot. These recent events have likely just sped up the inevitable. By all accounts, Gov. Pataki is a first-rate human being. Perhaps his future lies in the cabinet of the next Republican President.
10. & 11. Tom Tancredo & Duncan Hunter
James Garfield was the last Congressman to be elected to the White House in 1880. So any presidential run from that chamber faces very long odds.
Tancredo made statements a few weeks ago that indicated that’s he out of the running, before seemingly reversing course this week. His knack for the kooky quote will keep him in the headlines regardless.
Duncan Hunter’s announcement has seemed to generate very little enthusiasm (to no one’s surprise). He is another candidate who may be gunning for a cabinet position.
12. Chuck Hagel
I have a better chance of winning the Republican nomination than Sen. Hagel
Well, that’s it for this update. Fire away in the comments!
November 29th, 2006 at 11:10 am
You can scratch off another name.
Just crossing the wires today (Nov 29) is news that
Bill Frist will not seek the presidency in ’08.
Perhaps he finally read the handwriting on the wall.
November 29th, 2006 at 11:13 am
Ugh… I should have put this off for one more day!
November 29th, 2006 at 12:49 pm
Frist’s position is pro-life even on stem cells. Where he differs from the hardcore pro-life position is that he thinks it’s ok to use stem cells from embryos that are already dead or will die no matter what you do. He doesn’t think it’s ok to kill embryos for the sake of getting stem cells. I don’t know if Thompson’s position is the same one as Frist’s or the same one as Bush’s, both of which have been grossly misdescribed by the more hardcore pro-lifers, but neither position is not pro-life. It’s just that they see these cases as more like organ donation by their already dead or dying.
November 29th, 2006 at 12:50 pm
Frist is out, by the way, as of this morning.
November 29th, 2006 at 2:37 pm
As an outsider to GOP-world, I would need some help understanding the feelings expressed by these rankings. The one that glares out at me as being rather surprising is the bottom ranking of Chuck Hagel. My sense is that, yes, he is not going to be the nominee. However, to put him lower than Tancredo, Hunter, Pataki, and Brownback seems odd to me. Hagel strikes me as way too centrist to get the nomination, but as the tyope of guy who could be a very viable candidate in another universe where nominees were not beholden to base-driven nominating processes. Kinda like Joe Lieberman. In fact, if someone like Rudy is not only acceptable, but at the top of the list, even given his liberalness, then why is Hagel so anathema?
November 29th, 2006 at 2:54 pm
Tano,
I think it has alot to do with the the fact that the war on terror and Iraq are the single most important issues for most people here (and most GOP’ers in general). We are NOT going to nominate someone who doesn’t get it. And Hagel doesn’t.
November 29th, 2006 at 3:02 pm
I have to agree with Tano.
November 29th, 2006 at 3:53 pm
I should specify that these ranking only pertain to the race for the Republican nomination and do not pertain to the general election. That’s why Hagel is ranked where he is.
November 29th, 2006 at 4:11 pm
Matt,
I know this may be a touchy subject, but I will try to keep it on a cool level. No advocacy here, just an interest in basic political strategery.
You raise the issue of the WoT and “getting it”. The political reality, at least for now, seems to be that the present administration seems to have erred in two big ways. One- the Iraq invasion is seen by a majority to have been a strategic mistake in the larger WoT. And secondly, given the iraq invasion, the implementation has been deeply flawed. You would probably get an overwhelming majority agreeing with that.
So what are the implications of this for the 08 cadndidates? I am sure that you are right in the sense that candidates would need to convince the GOP voters that they “get it” about the WoT. But is there not also a need to convince the electorate at large that they also “get it” in terms of being able to learn from the mistakes of the past few years? How close can your candidates align themsleves with the present administration – to what extent do you guys acknowledge that a successful GOP candidate will need to distance himself from the Bush admin. at least to some extent?
Hagel is a useful foil for this question (no other reason I mention him). I think it would be rather unfair to claim that he doesnt really get it in terms of understanding the challenges of terrorism. But he could also credibly claim to have been aware of, and critical of the mistakes that have been made. I dont see any other of your candidates that can do that today, and I sense it may be necessary if they hope to win a general election.
November 29th, 2006 at 4:26 pm
I would rate Giuliani, McCain, and Romney as co-equals in any power rankings as of today, with Speaker Gingrich in fourth place. I do not see how you can rate Romney below Giuliani and McCain given that he has the most advanced campaign apparatus of any presidential contender in either party.
November 29th, 2006 at 5:06 pm
Republius,
I actually agree with you on this basically. However, I have to take all factors into account, and with Romney unable to barely break single digits even in states where his name is well know like Michigan, I think it is appropriate to have him in 2nd place behind Rudy and McCain for now. (I also think you’re underselling McCain’s organization a little bit as well.)
I one year’s time, I’m sure we will have the 1a, 1b, & 1c situation I described above.
November 29th, 2006 at 5:09 pm
Gee, do I have timing or what…
WaPo has a bit of a Hagel puff piece today, basically making the points that I’m asking y’all about. Anything to it?
November 29th, 2006 at 8:55 pm
Great minds think alike! I agree with your analyses, and am excited that Thompson and Hunter have entered the fray. Hunter is a fence and war hawk and Thompson could make school vouchers a major issue.
I do think that Romney will weather any flip flop claims on social issues with his battle for traditional marriage credentials in MASS and his convincing conversion story on stem cells and abortion. Plus, the GOP welcomes one time flippers. see Reagan.
What do you know about Pawlenty and could he enter the race? Wasn’t he one of the few conservatives to weather the storm in a contested race?
November 29th, 2006 at 9:29 pm
T-Paw is going to sit this one out. He made a pledge not to run for national office last summer. But perhaps he could be cajoled into accepting the Veep slot.
November 30th, 2006 at 12:54 am
“In fact, if someone like Rudy is not only acceptable, but at the top of the list, even given his liberalness, then why is Hagel so anathema?”
I think a lot of this has to do with gut feelings about the two men. Hagel’s voting record is well to the right of most if not all Democrats in the Senate, but at a gut level, conservatives just sort of sense that he’s not “one of us.” He seems far too comfortable with the MSM, and yearns for their approval. He hails from Nebraska, yet he’s become an institution of the Beltway. And so on.
When regular conservatives look at Rudy and do a gut check, they get a sense that he IS “one of us.” Now, this may not be true for, say, a very strong social conservative, or a voter who is only interested in politics because of a single cultural issue, like abortion. But when your regular conservatives gauge Rudy — the ones who vote on all the issues more or less equally — they get the feeling that he sees the world as they do and not as the New York Times does. And we have plenty of evidence of this from his mayoralty. Rudy was constantly sparring with the liberal elites. He was for tax cuts, spending cuts, school choice, and welfare reform. He won big in the working class parts of town. He was sort of New York’s Reagan. His temperment is more Margaret Thatcher than John Kerry. And conservatives feel they can trust him. At a gut level.