Hugh Hewitt said on his nationally broadcast radio show yesterday that he believes the 2008 Republican presidential primary will come down to three candidates – Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senator John McCain, and Governor Mitt Romney. I think Mr. Hewitt is one candidate short – Newt Gingrich will, in my opinion, be a serious GOP presidential candidate in 2008 who ranks up there will the above three in contesting for the nomination if based only on his name recognition, passion for debating public policy, and?force of personality?aside from any lack of early organizational?and fundraising prowess.
The departure of Senator Bill Frist from the Republican presidential contest may be a harbinger. Senator Frist had the ability – given his contacts, support, and fundraising network – to make some serious headway in 2008. But you have to wonder if the apparent coalescing of talent, funds, media scrutiny, and momentum behind the Big Four added to his list of reasons not to run (which would have included an arguably disappointing stint as Senate Majority Leader).
Could it be that the next potentially serious 2008 GOPer to drop out of the race will be Governor George Pataki, who has already lost staff in Iowa and?manifests only a fraction of the advantage other early organized candidates seem to be generating for their efforts?
Yes, there will be other Republican candidates in the 2008 race. But I see no reason to believe those other than Gingrich, Giuliani, McCain, and Romney will have the staying power to seriously compete for the nomination. And as the Big Four continue to devour most of the political oxygen in the GOP presidential holding room, it is likely that we will see other heretofore likely entrants bow out of the picture as only those interested in making a statement and conducting a longshot candidacy dare to challenge the?top of the 2008 Republican batting order.
November 29th, 2006 at 4:26 pm
Is there any major coalescing of funds and organization behind Gingrich? Come to think of it, I don’t really know of any major funds or organization Newt has set up or any major talents he has recruited for his proto-presidential-campaign. Although, I do agree with you that his name recognition, policy wisdom, and personality will make for a good candidacy if he decides to run.
As for Pataki, I also agree with you that he will be the next to drop out. Serious candidates run for one of three reasons:
A). They think they can raise enough money and recruit enough supporters to actually win
B). Whether or not they win, they want to push a certain issue(s) in the debate
C). Both of the above
Rudy, McCain, and Romney all seem to be running primarily on choice A. They’re not making one single issue the heart of their campaign, but they are showing a definite ability to create an effective political machine.
Thompson, Hunter, and Tancredo all seem to have staked out their territory concretely and I think will stay in the race for a while longer based primarily on choice B (though I think Thompson could very well turn into a choice C candidate soon).
It’s increasingly looking like George Pataki answers none of these three calls. I don’t think (and I think he knows it) that he has the ability to raise the funds or supporters to make a serious bid, and he doesn’t really seem to have any issue that he wants to push in the race. Unless he shows an uncanny turnaround fundraising ability/charisma or snags a certain issue that he really wants to cling to, then the longer he stays in the race, the more it’s going to look like he’s just in it for his ego. Eventually, the cost of maintaining a campaign would catch up with him and he would simply not be able to continue. I predict George Pataki within the next month and a half that he’s dropping out of the race.
Sam Brownback and Chuck Hagel are tricky in these regards. Clearly, neither of them are going to be able to raise the money and supporters to make a good bid for the nomination. However, they seem to be sort of vaguely trying to champion their own issues: Brownback the social conservative issues (whose pie is quickly being gobbled up by other candidates) and Hagel the Iraq War issue (whose territory is now being encroached upon my Iraq War critics like McCain and Gingrich). Brownback and Hagel have been showing few signs of trying to get a grip on those issues and make them their own. Realistically, I think Sam and Chuck will both drop out of consideration, probably in early 2007 as well, but I might be wrong.
Mike Huckabee is an enigma. It’s clear that he’s really not championing a particular issue (I don’t think weight loss counts). His executive experience territory is pretty much already taken by Rudy, Romney, to a lesser extent Newt, and now likely Tommy. As chair of the Republican Governor’s Association, everyone pretty much assumed the whole governor/administrator/leadership platform would be his, but he’s been unable to claim it. He showed early signs of considerable strength in the organization game, but that has seemingly faded, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense since Huckabee is leaving the Governor’s Mansion this year and can’t claim that he’s been focusing on re-election this in ’06. Unless Huckabee comes back strong in the organization game, I don’t think he’ll be able to raise the necessary funds and support levels to make a real bid. “Gimmegate” is becoming a more and more painful thorn in his side as well. He looked like a big time contender just a few months ago, but now I’m very doubtful.
Here’s what I think it will look like:
Late December 2006: McCain formally announces, Pataki drops out
Early January 2007: Brownback drops out
Late January 2007: Giuliani formally announces
Late Winter-Early Spring 2007: Romney and Thompson announce, Hagel drops out
Late Spring-Early Fall 2007: Tancredo (officially) drops out
Late Fall-Early Winter 2007/08: Hunter drops out, Gingrich (after participating in debates and upping the bar for policy discussion) opts out
I’ll have to wait and see more from Gilmore to get a sense of where he’s going–I could easily see him making a presidential bid or going for a Senate/Governor run instead. I also expect Mike Bloomberg to start getting really flirty with the idea of a run in early-mid 2007, but then back off and opt out once again.
November 29th, 2006 at 4:41 pm
The coalescing of media scrutiny has already occurred for Speaker Gingrich if you check around. And I think it gives his potential candidacy significant momentum.
The coalescing of funds and talent for Speaker Gingrich are latent, and will be manifest as soon as he forms his campaign umbrella organization, “American Solutions for Winning the Future.”
It can be argued that Speaker Gingrich is the true conservative among the Big Four and that he will attract a wave of conservative support in terms of resources and personnel compared to Giuliani, McCain, and Romney as soon as the apparatus is in place to accept them.
November 29th, 2006 at 4:49 pm
I think it can be argued that Speaker Gingrich is the most thoroughly conservative candidate of the Big Four, but he will not be immune from the scrutiny of sanctity-of-marriage advocates because of his rough marital life, the scrutiny of Bush-loyalists because of his criticisms of the Iraq War, and the scrutiny of libertarian Republicans because of his recent comments about the need to “change” some speech freedom laws. On top of all this, with such high national name recognition and such low success in the general election matchup polls, coupled with the increased focus on electability following 11/7, his national unelectability might prove to be a nonstarter. Plus, he constantly seems very noncommital about this. I personally see Newt sticking it out late into the campaign to “raise the bar” for the policy debates, but I don’t think he will be able to raise the funds to make it in the end.
Plus, executive/administrative experience is key to the nomination and Rudy and Romney own that territory. Newt is a really smart policy wonk, but I just don’t think voters will see a go-get-em leader in Newt like I think they will in Rudy and Romney.
November 29th, 2006 at 5:14 pm
Newt was on Michael Medved today talking about his potential White House run. Basically, he said he thinks it’s unnecessary for the presidential campaigning to start so early (coincidentally, Wes Clark was quoted today as saying the big mistake he made last time was too wait to long, and he announced at the same time Newt is mentioning).
I love Newt. I wish he would run a traditional campaign and make a solid go of it. I just can’t help thinking that this whole thing is basically a “Stop John McCain” failsafe plan.
November 29th, 2006 at 5:19 pm
Which is not a wasted effort in the least, IMHO…but it sure would be nice to see Newt at the SC debate.
November 29th, 2006 at 5:51 pm
“…it sure would be nice to see Newt at the SC debate.”
That would be sweet.
One of the key things Newt brings to the table is a reputation for straight shooting. Cut through all the garbage, just lay it on the line. I would dearly love him there at the SC debate.
I think involvement of Newt Gingrich at any level in the 2008 campaign will be a headache for McCain. Why? Gingrich has a rock-solid reputation of “straight talking” AND being a team player. McCain doesn’t need the comparison and contrast.
November 29th, 2006 at 9:13 pm
It would be great to see Newt run if only to infuse some of his excellent policy positions into the debate –and then have these policy positions picked up by the winner of the GOP nomination who IMO will be either Giuliani or McCain.
November 29th, 2006 at 9:49 pm
I hope Hagel & Tancredo pick the party. They are both horrible for the GOP, whenever they go on TV: Hagel because he parrots MSM cut n’ run “multilateralist” positions; Tancredo because he chaces swing voter to the Democrats in droves.
November 29th, 2006 at 9:50 pm
Sorry, I meant “I hope Hagel & Tancredo skip the party.”
November 29th, 2006 at 10:17 pm
Newt won’t be able to raise money. All these pretenders are going to discover
what Alexander, Quayle, and Elizabeth Dole discovered in 2000. There IS a money primary.
By the time summer rolls around, Giuliani, Romney, and McCain will all be holding tens of millions
of dollars. Along the way, all three will trim (in different ways) to meet the expectations of
conservatives. The Big 3 will have all the money and all the good real estate.
No one else will look serious.
December 18th, 2006 at 1:51 am
okay, tell me to go to blazes because I don’t think the GOP is the salvation of mankind and the political center of the universe, BUT
if Newt Gingrich or anybody else really wants to promote meaningful change, they should work to create a multi-party system that gives us coalition governments. The two-party system is only good for one thing: gridlock.