Almost every presidential poll from early 2005 until now has shown Rudy Giuliani or John McCain (Giuliani more often than McCain) to be the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, with the only other potential challenger being Condoleezza Rice (whom most assume will not run).? So the question is, are we looking pretty much at a Rudy Giuliani as the Republican nominee already, a year and a half away from the Republican National Convention?? Is it true that the GOP “always” nominates frontrunners?? To answer this question with some empirical evidence, I scoured Gallup’s (who are arguably one of the most accurate polling companies anywhere) archives and looked at the first survey following the mid-term election that asked Republicans about their nominee preferences in the past 40 years.? (Note: I exclude years in which the GOP has an incumbent President available) Here’s what I found:
1980 Nominee: Ronald Reagan
Gallup Poll – 11/28/1978
29% Ronald Reagan
24% Gerald Ford
10% Howard Baker
1988 Nominee: George H. W. Bush
Gallup Poll – 01/19/1987
34% George H. W. Bush
24% Bob Dole
15% Howard Baker
1996 Nominee: Bob Dole
Gallup Poll – 02/05/1995
62% Bob Dole
34% Dan Quayle
24% Newt Gingrich
2000 Nominee: George W. Bush
Gallup Poll – 03/14/1999
40% George W. Bush
24% Elizabeth Dole
6% Dan Quayle
2008 Nominee: ???
Gallup Poll – 06/04/2006
29% Rudy Giuliani
24% John McCain
8% Newt Gingrich
So, yes, it does indeed seem that, in the modern era, the GOP always ends up nominating the candidate that is perceived to be the frontrunner a year and a half out from the Convention when there is no incumbent President.? This spells great news for Rudy and not so great news for anyone not named Rudy.
However, the wrench to be thrown in this entire process is the fact that, for the first time since the 1928, the Democrats will have an open field at the same time as the Republicans.? This means that the Republicans don’t really know what they’re up against.? They’re not running against someone whom they know will be the Democratic nominee.? Given the Democrats’ penchant for shaking things up at seemingly random moments just before the primary season, Republican candidates are going to have to nimble and willing to change strategies at a moment’s notice when different Democratic candidates pop up their heads.? The very fact that the Democratic field will be so fluid could mean that the Republican field will have to do the same in response.
However, this may not have much effect on the GOP race in 2007-2008 for two reasons:
A). Republicans don’t usually nominate for the Democrats.? In other words, Republicans don’t usually pick a nominee as a knee-jerk reaction to whomever the Democratic nominee is.? They tend to nominate for themselves–they tend to nominate candidates they like, often times regardless of how well they think their nominee would do in the general election.
B). In regards to 2008, the current frontrunner, Rudy Giuliani, has already been shown to have a clear advantage over virtually every possible Democratic candidate.? It is unlikely that the GOP will drop Giuliani if some new Democratic candidate becomes the apparent frontrunner, because Giuliani can beat them all and so there’s no need to switch him with somebody else.
So, based on the current situation, assuming there isn’t a bombshell UFO (unforseen occurrence) that completely shakes things up between now and the Convention–such as a major scandal on Rudy’s part or the emergence of another heavyweight contender on the GOP side like Rice, we’re looking at a presidential nominee Giuliani in 2008, regardless of whom the Democrats nominate.? As it now stands, the nomination is Giuliani’s to lose.
November 1st, 2006 at 12:17 am
This race is different from any other since 1952. There is no real “front runner” and this is going to be a wide open race where a true outsider can come from nowhere and become the nominee.
Also, with 8-12 candidates likely to run, this will allow a real dark horse to come up from behind and surprise these pundits.
On another, partisan note, if we’re stuck with liberal Rudy, the GOP is doomed as a party. Surely, we can find one social and fiscal conservative who’s better than him.
November 1st, 2006 at 1:53 am
Sorry, but John McCain fits the classic mold of a GOP frontrunner.
November 1st, 2006 at 11:25 am
Why is it that whenever someone trots out this bit of historical trivia (GOP always nominates Frontrunners) they invariably leave out the other historical precedents that Senators tend to lose to Governors, and even fewer Mayors get the nod?
The truth is, historical precedents always apply until they don’t. It is like the old ‘gotcha’ question in statistics:
Assume that the chances of having a boy or a girl is 50/50. If a couple has had five children, all of them boys, what are the chances that the next one is a girl?
The answer? 50/50. The previous five children are irrelevant on the chances on the next child.
It used to be that if the American League won the World Series, then the Democrat won. If the National League won the World Series, then the Republican won. (Or was it the other way ’round? I forget) That was true for many decades until finally Reagan proved it wrong.
How about every President getting elected in a year ending in zero died in office. That was true from 1840 (I think) to 1960. Then Reagan (again) proved it wrong.
My point? The frontrunner precedent is interesting and should be factored in, but the weight to assign to it is debatable to say the least.
November 3rd, 2006 at 9:22 pm
Great to hear that another person understands the power of Condi in the 2008 list of contenders.
Here is a Secretary of State who is so focused on her job that she is not seen as power-hungry or
as a media hog. She makes international news by getting the UN Security Council members to put
pressue on Kim Boy. Her Asian Tour was a success and there will be 6-party talks within a year,
getting some stablity back in the region.
There are many Cabinet members who have been elected as president, most of them served as Secretary
of State. That is just a historical fact. If Condi can be convinced that her time is NOW, that
our nation needs her as president in 2009, then all the efforts of numerous groups for the past
2 years will have proven that PEOPLE will select their leaders. PEOPLE want to be involved and
want to believe their efforts make a difference. So we shall see that happens in another year.
The biggest impact on whether Condi runs will be the results of Iraq and the Middle East.
If she can work with Jim Baker and his group to stablize the area, she will be able to hand
President Bush a legacy.
November 15th, 2006 at 3:56 pm
[...] However, as I noted in a post late last month, there seems to be an unwritten cosmic rule in the past several decades that whomever wins the first Republican presidential nominee poll taken by Gallup after a midterm elections turns out to be the actual Republican presidential nominee at the Convention: [...]
November 20th, 2006 at 1:59 pm
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