This one surprised me a little bit. The latest FOX News Poll pits McCain against Hillary Clinton and then against Barack Obama. Here were the results:
“Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today and the candidates were Democrat [see below] and Republican [see below], for whom would you vote?” Names rotated
? ? ? ? ? .
? ? ? John
McCain (R)Hillary
Clinton (D)Other (vol.)/
Unsure? ? ? ? % % % ? ? ? 10/24-25/06 LV
45 39 15 ? ? ? 8/29-30/06
47 39 13 ? ? ? 5/16-18/06
46 42 13 ? ? ? 3/14-15/06
50 39 11 ? ? ? 2/7-8/06
51 38 11 ? ? ? 9/27-28/05
49 38 12 ? ? ? 11/16-17/04
53 37 10 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? .
? ? ? John
McCain (R)Barack
Obama (D)Other (vol.)/
Unsure? ? ? ? % % % ? ? ? 10/24-25/06 LV
41 38 21
Obama only loses to McCain by?the slimmest 3% margin, while Hillary loses by 6% margin, which is slowly slimming as well.? Obama doesn’t do as good a job at getting votes for himself as Hillary does, most likely because A). his extreme liberal record sets off moderates, and B). he is not as well known on the issues and as a leader as Hillary is.? He does, however, keep McCain’s support noticeably lower than Hillary is able to.? Notice his lack of support doesn’t translate into votes for McCain, but, to the contrary, drives both McCain voters and Democratic voters into the Unsure column.? While, for a junior senator with little experience and little national exposure, a 38-41 margin against McCain is an impressive base statistic, I think the Unsures would break heavily for McCain once the nation sees just how far to the left Obama’s record?is.
As an added bonus, we get to see how a McCain-Giuliani ticket would fair against a Clinton-Obama ticket:
“Let’s say the Democratic ticket is Hillary Clinton for president and Barack Obama for vice president, and the Republican ticket is John McCain for president and Rudy Giuliani for vice president. If you were voting today, how would you vote?” Tickets rotated
? ? ? ? ? .
? ? ? McCain/
Giuliani (R)Clinton/
Obama (D)Wouldn’t
Vote (vol.)Unsure ? ? ? % % % % ? ? 10/24-25/06 LV
48 40 3 8
Adding Obama to Clinton’s ticket boosts her overall score by 1 point.? Adding Giuliani to his ticket boosts McCain’s overall score by 3 and gives McCain a 2-point wider margin of victory, probably because Giuliani would help mobilize the conservative base, where Rudy is extremely popular.? Obama would probably also help mobilize the Democrats’ liberal base who are put off by Hillary’s attempts to act moderate.
Personally, I just don’t see either Clinton or Obama being on the Democratic ticket in 2008.? Clinton is a guaranteed loser (with very high name recognition, meaning she has little room to grow) and Obama is far too inexperienced to last long in one of the hottest and most unforgiving elections in decades.
Also, as delineated in my previous post, I believe historical precedent will give Giuliani the top slot on the ticket in 2008, which means that McCain will probably not be on the ticket at all, because, first of all, I don’t think McCain is humble enough to accept second place, and second of all, I think Giuliani will want to pick a running mate with a solid conserative record to help ensure his ticket will be acceptable to the GOP’s base in the general election.
Although now I am curious.? I would like to see some polling pitting Rudy against Obama.
October 31st, 2006 at 10:08 pm
The funny thing about the media’s crush on Obama is that the same people who swear that Rudy’s popularity in the Republican Party is destined to evaporate once voters are reminded of his views on social issues are convinced that Obama’s strong polling despite his very liberal voting record means that voters like Obama despite his views, not because they don’t know about them.
October 31st, 2006 at 10:22 pm
So are you saying you think it will be
Rudy/Romney?
October 31st, 2006 at 10:58 pm
I think Romney would be an awesome Veep candidate myself.
October 31st, 2006 at 11:05 pm
Re: Rudy/Romney…
I think it’s a strong possibility that this will be the ticket. If Romney comes in second or third, it will be due largely to his organization as well as to his position as the Phil Gramm/Jack Kemp conservative niche candidate (the guy who gets all the endorsements from conservative eggheads — which, as a conservative egghead, is a term I’m allowed to use). Those are both things that Rudy could use against the Democrats in the general. In other words, why let the army of Mittsters disband after the primaries when they can be co-opted by Giuliani/Romney ’08?
October 31st, 2006 at 11:08 pm
BTW, I think McCain’s stock goes up significantly but temporarily after the midterms.
Electability will instantaneously become Republicans’ primary concern w/r/t finding an ’08 nominee.
November 1st, 2006 at 1:34 am
I could see Giuliani asking Romney to be V.P. However, they are both Northeasterners. That would be a serious problem.
The same would apply to Romney/Giuliani.
November 1st, 2006 at 2:33 pm
I’d say its a given that Rudy will probably have to nominate a favorite of social conservatives to the VP slot should he win the nomination. If that winds up being Romney, then Romney it is. Two candidates from the Northeast might not be ideal, but keeping social/ religous conservatives at least moderately happy with Rudy will be a greater priority. Plus, Rudy and Romney collectively could put Connecticut in play.
November 1st, 2006 at 5:12 pm
Sean P,
I disagree. If Rudy can fight his way past social conservatives in the GOP primary, he certainly won’t need to appease them to get victory in the general election. The social conservative clout will be felt most strongly in the party nomination.
A choice between Rudy and Hillary will be a much easier win than a choice between Rudy and a social conservative primary opponent.
November 1st, 2006 at 6:43 pm
I still think the smartest Veep pick Rudy could make if he gets the nomination is Condi Rice. A native of Alabama, who, though she speaks with in a very refined Western accent is still markedly Southern, she is a solid conservative on the issues, picking up the slack where Rudy falls short (gun rights, immigration, etc.), and she’s an outspoken evangelical Christian who is second only to Rudy in political popularity. Both Rudy and Condi seem to draw their support from completely different bases as Strategic Vision’s old polls that had both w/ Condi and w/o Condi options indicated. I think a Giuliani-Rice ticket would be successful because of the balance they present:
Giuliani’s domestic policy knowhow w/ Condi’s foreign policy knowhow
Giuliani’s fresh DC outsider image w/ Condi’s already in-depth knowledge of the inner workings of the White House
Giuliani’s appeal to the Northeast w/ Condi’s appeal to the South and West
The only issue is that while Condi has never said she wouldn’t accept being Giuliani’s running mate, she HAS said that she would never run with John McCain, and on at least one occasion, she has said that she doesn’t see herself running for Veep anytime soon.
Assuming Condi turns down Giuliani’s offer (which we can assume he would seriously consider), I think Romney would be the next obvious choice for running mate. He is pro-life, has made significant moves to the right on gay marriage in the past couple of years, and he has that sort of popular grassroots media-frontrunner-alternative appeal that Mark Warner used to equal on the Democratic side.
If not Romney, then two major darkhorse Veep candidates we should keep our eyes on are Sen. Larry Craig of the Midwestern state of Idaho and Sen. John Ensign of the important swingstate of Nevada. Craig has that rural feel to him that big-city Rudy lacks, he’s a long-serving Senator who’s built up a nice reputation, he’s a solid conservative (especially on those social issues), he is on the board of directors of the NRA, he’s very popular in his homestate, and his good record even got him on the short list of candidates to succeed Norton as Sec. of the Interior last March.
Ensign, on the other hand, has an impressive record also. He is quite popular and seems to be cruising to re-election this month. In ’03, the American Conservative Union named him the most conservative Senator, though he’s really not conservative enough to scare off moderates. In ’04 the National Taxpayers Union named him the most taxpayer friendly Senator, and he received the highest ever rating for a senator by the Citizens Against Government Waste AND by the National Tax Limitation Committee, separately. He’s a solid social conservative and a strong supporter of the war effort. He has a very youthful aura and, importantly, him having the homestate of the key swingstate of Nevada could block the Democrats’ efforts to turn Nevada blue through upping its place in the primaries.
I would also assume Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry, Elizabeth Dole, and Tim Pawlenty (if he makes re-election this year) would be on Rudy’s short list as well. Assuming Mike Steele ultimately wins in Maryland (which I hope he does, because he’s an incredible guy) I can’t see how he wouldn’t end up on a national ticket some day, if not in ’08.
November 1st, 2006 at 7:43 pm
Brownback also deserves a mention as a great Veep choice for Rudy, although people may have objections to an all Catholic ticket.
Since Rice seems intent on returning to Stanford. My dream ticket is either Rudy/Romney or Rudy/Steele. Rudy is such an electoral sure-thing that I’m not concerned with geographic balance (which is overrated anyways).
It didn’t matter who Ike chose as his Veep. It’s the same situation with Rudy. Â
November 1st, 2006 at 8:17 pm
Objections to this all Catholic ticket could only come from lefty secularists who dislike anyone who takes their conservative religious principles seriously (Brownback, not Giuliani). I can’t imagine religious creedal differences making any traction with the religious right (see Harriet Miers vs Sam Alito).
I don’t see why Rudy (if he runs and if he wins the primary) would want to tack right in the general election.
November 1st, 2006 at 8:48 pm
You’re right, Brownback should have also been mentioned. He is a great Senator with both executive and legislative experience. I hesitated about adding him to my list precisely because he is Catholic also, but moreso because he is one of the most extreme right-wing politicians in America today and might be seen as too polarizing–can you imagine a centrist like Rudy and a far-far-rightist like Brownback trying to give a unified message on the campaign trail? It just seems like there would be too much friction there. I might be wrong.
November 1st, 2006 at 9:10 pm
How about Congressman Mike Pence of Indiana?
November 1st, 2006 at 9:16 pm
I think Brownback on the ticket would be a bit much. It’s the Quayle pick all over again. All veep selections are to some extent based on political calculus, but if Rudy picked Brownback, it would be clear that abortion was the *only* reason Brownback was on the ticket, and not because the guy was the best man for the job.
November 1st, 2006 at 9:38 pm
I really like Mike Pence myselfÂ