We have heard the rumors this past week that Republican National Committee (RNC)?Chairman Ken Mehlman is likely to leave his current position, will probably?open up his own political consulting firm, and could end up on the 2008 presidential campaign staff of Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
And Mehlman may be just the start of some real sparks that could ignite in the competition for top GOP campaign talent among the contending 2008 presidential campaigns once the mid-term elections are over on November 7.
Start with the President George W. Bush political team that has won two presidential elections and one midterm election. There is a tremendous value at the presidential campaign level in having staffers who have done such national campaigns before – especially if they have been recent and successful. These are the people who will be most in demand by GOP 2008 hopefuls.
The conventional wisdom is that Karl Rove will sit out 2008 unless Governor Jeb Bush runs, though The Architect has always been fond of Senator Bill Frist, a likely presidential contender this next time. Rove has simply given no indication whatsoever that he is interested in jumping back into the next national campaign unless Jeb runs, which appears unlikely.
We have already talked about Ken Mehlman, who would be cherished by any Republican presidential campaign.
Mark McKinnon, the media specialist for the last two Bush-Cheney campaigns, is already committed to Senator John McCain in 2008.
Terry Nelson, the Bush-Cheney ’04 Political Director, is also already committed to Senator John McCain in 2008.
And do not forget or underestimate Ralph Reed, one of the best GOP political minds in the country and the Bush-Cheney ’04 Southern Regional Coordinator, who has yet to sign on with any 2008 operation. Reed certainly took some hits in his failed Lieutenant Governor primary run in Georgia this cycle, largely based on his connections to Jack Abramoff. But his organizational, strategic, and tactical talent would be welcome by any 2008 GOP aspirant regardless of his recent troubles.
Matthew Dowd, the Chief Strategist for the Bush-Cheney ’04 campaign, is currently performing the same duty for the re-election campaign of California Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. In the immediate aftermath of the 2004 elections, Dowd claimed that he had no desire to ever run another national campaign. But subsequently we find him still in the campaign business and not running for Controller in Texas as he had talked about. Dowd would be a huge get for any GOP presidential campaign?in 2008, though it might take some?convincing.
Likewise, Steve Schmidt, a veteran of the President George W. Bush presidential campaigns and White House political affairs office, is helping run the Schwarzenegger re-election campaign as its day-to-day manager and is not committed to any 2008 GOP presidential candidate yet. Schmidt (36) is considered to be the best up-and-coming, young political talent on the Republican side, and it is almost certain that he signs on with somebody’s 2008 GOP presidential operation.
I hasten to add that early in their political careers both Dowd and Schmidt, like their colleague McKinnon, worked for Democrats. I wonder if that fact, coupled with their very bipartisan strategy that has catapulted Schwarzenegger to a substantial lead in California, makes them prime targets for a Giuliani campaign?
Finally, among those outside the President George W. Bush sphere, it will be interesting to see what Mike Murphy ends up doing in 2008. Murphy, who has served as chief strategist for the McCain presidential campaign and the?gubernatorial campaigns of Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush, and who is one of the really talented people in the political consulting business on the Republican side, has said that if both McCain and Romney run in 2008 he will stay out of the race. Currently, in addition to political consulting, Murphy is attempting a career as a Hollywood screenwriter. But when the competition?heats up in the 2008 cycle it will be interesting to see if Murphy has truly lost the bug and is capable of staying away.
Former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie and GOP uber-spokesperson Mary Matalin are connected to the Senator George Allen organization. But let’s see where they end up if Allen becomes a non-factor in 2008, as many are predicting in the wake of his struggles to win re-election to the U.S. Senate this cycle.
The bottom line is that the Mehlman rumors have encouraged Giuliani supporters that it is not too late for their man to make up the organizational head start McCain and?Romney have crafted. But the reality is that there are?quite a few?other top political talents who are uncommitted for 2008?and could also change the GOP presidential campaign organizational balance of power if they sign on. Those mentioned herein are just a few of the more notable ones, and it is my guess that they end up with either Giuliani, McCain, or Romney – who are emerging as the GOP?Big Three for 2008 – if they choose to suit up again for this next presidential campaign.
It?ought to get real interesting starting on November 8.
October 31st, 2006 at 12:55 am
Republius,
Do you feel that Rudy has the inside track on landing Reed seeing how hard he stumped for him in the GA Lt. Governor race?
October 31st, 2006 at 1:02 am
I have no inside information, but the fact that Mayor Giuliani actively campaigned for Ralph Reed in that contested GOP primary for Lieutenant Governor, as you mentioned, has to help his ability to recruit him for a presidential campaign, especially if the Mayor emphasizes his Catholic faith in such a run.
I was very, very saddened to hear about the Reed connection with Jack Abramoff. I have heard Ralph speak many times, both in-person and on radio and television, and think he is truly one of the great political minds in the Republican Party.
Charlie Rose, the PBS interview show host, summed it up well, I thought, when he claimed during the 2004 election that he would love to have access to any campaign insider meeting that Ralph Reed was participating in.
October 31st, 2006 at 1:05 am
If Mayor Giuliani lands Ken Mehlman then that obviously means the Mayor is running for sure in 2008, at which point I also like the Mayor’s chances to land Matthew Dowd and Steve Schmidt.
And if Mayor Giuliani landed Mehlman, Dowd, and Schmidt, to go along with Chris Henick, then he would have as much senior staff firepower at the apex of his organizational pyramid as any GOP contender in 2008. At that juncture, Senator McCain and Governor Romney will still have a large lead in grassroots organizing and activist endorsements in the early caucus and primary states, but such a Mayor Giuliani team would be very capable of cutting into that – especially since folks in those early states often change allegiances as candidates enter the field. And, in any event, I remain unconvinced that Mayor Giuliani ultimately runs an insider, traditional, grassroots and activist campaign. He may well use his popularity to go populist, using events and media coverage to run as a different kind of candidate. If he was going to go traditional, I think he would have started much earlier staffing up.
December 8th, 2006 at 3:01 am
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