Liz Mair, Editor of GOPPROGRESS and occasional?guest blogger here at R4’08 has penned an excellent analysis of the situation on the ground from New Hampshire in regards to ’08. Liz has?spent much of the past 10 days live blogging from the campaign trail in New England and has provided some of the best coverage out there. If you haven’t already, please click the link to GOPPROGRESS to read her dispatches from the road.??

With regards to ’08, Liz writes:

A couple of interesting tidbits have come out over the last couple of days relating to Rudy Giuliani, and his 2008 prospects. The upshot is, I can see Rudy adopting a smart strategy–and one that could yield real dividends for him, even if that’s not immediately obvious right now.

Tidbit no. 1 is yesterday, the New York Daily News ran a story entitled “McCain makes hay while Rudy ponders a run.”

The point of this story was to demonstrate that McCain is trumping Rudy in what some observers call the “staff primary,” especially in New Hampshire, where, just last week, a whopping 50 state legislators signed on to aid McCain’s PAC, Straight Talk America.

Larry Sabato has claimed this is evidence that “McCain is leapfrogging Giuliani in his own backyard.” Well, actually, it’s more like McCain leapfrogging Romney in his own backyard, since New Hampshire is a long way from New York (trust me, I’ve done the Concord to NYC drive in one day), but neighbors Massachusetts. But the point is this: a lot of observers think Giuliani’s being too pondering, too slow, and just frankly not showing the dedication McCain is because he hasn’t done nearly as much to make headway in New Hampshire, in particular.

Let me go out on a limb here and suggest something else.

New Hampshire is territory owned by McCain. That has been the case since 2000, and it’s not going to change unless an Act of God occurs. Rudy’s no dummy, and he’s bound to know that.

He also knows, that while it will be nigh on impossible for anyone to knock McCain out of the no. 1 position in New Hampshire, he’s currently sitting comfortably in second place, a position he should be able to hold easily given that the next in-line contender is Mitt Romney, a man already known to Granite Staters because they get Boston TV, and whom they don’t seem much interested in. It took the injection of roughly $1,000,000 via an RGA “Kerry Healey” ad touting Mitt Romney that was broadcast in New Hampshire, for Romney to see even a minute bounce in his poll numbers in the state, which bodes pretty badly for the conservative-inclined, blue state Governor.

Rudy will be well aware of all this, so it seems to me a good strategy on his part to keep doing what he has been doing with regard to New Hampshire, albeit with an increasing step-up as we get closer to the beginning of 2008.

Why? Well, he’s not wasting resources on New Hampshire where he can’t win outright. He’s focusing on other places, where polls suggest he has more of a chance, while he does enough in new Hampshire to keep his name on people’s tongues and in their minds. In essence, he’s gunning for first elsewhere, specifically, in states where McCain does not have a clear and unchangeable lead, and where Romney lacks one, too, despite many visits, mass hires, and a lot of press. Like South Carolina.

This leads on to tidbit no. 2.

Tidbit no. 2 is Byron York’s South Carolian Poll, published yesterday, which probably made for downright troubling news for the Romney camp, and just so-so news for McCain. On the flipside, that poll made for outright fabulous news for Rudy.
Why? Well, the poll shows in no uncertain terms that Rudy–yes, New Yorker, pro-choice, gay-friendly, occasional drag-wearing Rudy–is positioned better than any other likely 2008 contender in the state.

Rudy has name ID just short of McCain and Newt Gingrich (93%), yet he has a higher favorable rating than any other likely GOP 2008 contender. Let me say that again. Rudy Giuliani has a higher favorable rating in South Carolina than any other likely GOP 2008 contender–higher than McCain, higher than Romney, and higher than Gingrich.

This is astonishing. Rudy has a 78% favorable rating, and just a 10% unfavorable rating, compared to McCain with a 65% favorable rating, but a 23% unfavorable rating, Newt with a 53% favorable rating and a 31% unfavorable rating, and Romney with a 41% favorable rating and an 11% unfavorable rating.

Now, sure, one thing those numbers tell you is that Romney isn’t well enough known in the state yet for people to say “favorable” or “unfavorable.” That will change with time, I am sure, but his camp have got to be worried, given the amount of attention that has been focused on the state (somewhere they must feel is an easy place to try to kill off McCain, rightly or wrongly), that 60% of those polled have never even heard of him. It begs the question: what is their press and grassroots operation up to, exactly?

The numbers are also notable in that they show that what is, in my view, a larger than expected percentage of voters favorable to McCain, but still, given the effort he’s put into turning South Carolina in his direction, it’s worrying that a social liberal has seemingly strolled in, and charmed a lot of voters. His unfavorable rating is also not so great, though it will probably be nudged down a bit with time.

Of course, as Race 4 2008 has noted, the impressions the public have of McCain, Rudy and Newt are relatively fixed and unshapeable at this stage. While McCain will always remind a few South Carolina voters of 2000 (not overly helpful), Rudy will always remind them of hope and triumph in the face of the 9/11 attacks (brilliant). And I know that Rudy has been doing a lot to talk to voters and GOP activists face to face about his views on social matters–probably their only real concern regarding a Giuliani candidacy. And while being frank about his views on abortion (which, given that he is a pro-choicer who seems to support the position that abortion is an issue for the states, not the federal government, aren’t turning out to be so bad for him anyway), he’s also been being frank about his views on things like school choice–which is a big concern for many Christian conservatives who want to educate their children in line with their own beliefs, whether that means chartering a school, using school vouchers to send their kids private or parochial, or homeschooling.

From where I sit, it looks like Rudy’s employing a pretty smart strategy for a guy who seems to still be mulling it over. Sure, it may not be enough to push him over the finishing line (he won’t beat McCain in New Hampshire, and he’s probably got no shot in Michigan), but then again, some funny old things happen in the course of Presidential primaries. Like a candidate that many moderates and libertarian-leaners feel is their best philosophical match getting support from those furthest to the right (even if it turns out to be enough to only let him finish second, in the end).

One thing this poll does tell me, for sure, is that Romney is going to have to work his cotton socks off to get anywhere in two of the most important states: NH and SC. New Hampshire is probably a lost cause, and is perhaps best ignored in favor of focusing on South Carolina, where it seems like there is the most potential for him to do well. That being said, of course, it is a sad fact that there may be only so far a Mormon can go in a state, many of whose evangelical voters don’t even seem too big on Catholics (a much more known quantity than Mormons in terms of their theology). Romney may turn out to be too much, too soon for Palmetto staters, while McCain and Giuliani may both come out looking just about right.

In any event, Giuliani is playing it smart from now, from where I sit.

I have not had an occasion to agree with Liz very often lately (I could not disagree with her more strongly?regarding conservatism and Gay Marriage). However, I believe she hit one out of the park with this analysis. I have always believed that Rudy entering the race kills the chance for any other candidate not named McCain to win the Republican nomination.

Between media frontrunner John McCain, and polling frontrunner Rudy Giuliani, how many votes are going to be left to split between Mitt, Newt, Frist, Brownback, Pataki,?Allen (if he wins and if he runs),?etc…?

McCain will probably win the two early primaries of NH and MI. Rudy is leading in current polling in IA right now (despite Romney practically living in Iowa for the past six-months). That leaves the the rest of the field fighting for scraps.

The history of the Republican nomination process has been well discussed here at R4’08. You have to got back nearly?45 years?to find a GOP presidential nominee who wasn’t: A.) The guy who came in 2nd the last time; or B.) “The Frontrunner” as presumed by status (George H.W. Bush as Veep) or polling (George W. Bush). ???

To believe that Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Bill Frist, or any other GOP?hopeful will garner the nomination is to completely deny historical precedant. I could buy it?if there was a candidate who could unite several critical wings of the Republican Party- say for instance Jeb Bush, who could unite the So-Cons, Economic Conservatives, and the GWOT Hawk?Wing of the GOP. However, there just isn’t that guy in this race (and no, Mitt Romney does not qualify here as?any candidate who already has Evangelical Pro-Life?groups actively working to?defeat him cannot by definition be a unity candidate).

So I’m sticking to my guns here. If Rudy enters the race it’s a two-man showdown between him and McCain. If he?declines to run all bets are off. ???????