My weekly 2006 projections will be released tomorrow evening.? They will show Democrats taking the House while Republicans hold the Senate.? This, of course, comes with all the caveats about turn-out, etc.? But all else being equal, there’s now a very strong chance one-party rule in Washington ends in 2007.

After the election, you’re going to hear a variety of pundits and prognosticators argue one or both of the following things: 1) the post-9/11 GOP realignment was a fiction and/or 2) 2006 marked the beginning of a Democratic realignment.

Don’t believe either of them.

I’ll link to some helpful maps tomorrow, but 2006 is no realignment.? It’s a good Democratic year.? The political topography of the country isn’t changing; the south and interior west are?still “redder” than the Great Lakes states and the southwest, which in turn?are still “redder” than the northeast and the west coast.? It’s just that everything is a bit more blue than it was in 2002 and 2004.? Dark red areas have become light red, light red states are purple, purple territory is light blue, and so on.? Again, the country will remain aligned the same way as it has been since 9/11.? We’re not going to see, for example, New Jersey turn red while Texas turns blue.? What we are seeing is a uniform national shift toward the blue end of the spectrum due to the anti-GOP sentiment?in the country right now.? Like I said: a good Democratic year.? And in 2008, we could easily see the opposite with a shift back toward all things red.

But wait!? How can the post-9/11 alignment remain intact despite the GOP losing the House?? Doesn’t the majority party almost always have control of both houses of Congress?

This is a historical fallacy based on the assumption that all majority coalitions will operate just like the New Deal coalition.? From 1932-1968, Democrats controlled both houses of Congress for 32 of 36 years.? This is actually the exception and not the rule when it comes to political alignments.? Contrast this period with that of 1860-1896, or with 1968-2004.? During those two 36-year periods, government was most often divided between the two parties.? And during the 36-year period of 1896-1932, the one that is most similar to our current period, the Republican majority coalition lost the House for?8 of 36 years and the Senate for 6 of 36 years.? And all of this despite the fact that Republicans were the party of the regions of the country that were the most pro-growth and that were spearheading the new economy, just like today.

On November 8th, you may wake up to a Democratic House, but you won’t be waking up to a Democratic nation.