Well, the results?are in?w/r/t the latest edition of the GOP Bloggers 2008 straw poll.? With over nine thousand votes cast from self-selected online Republicans and conservatives, Rudy Giuliani is now the clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.? The good mayor has surpassed both George Allen and Newt Gingrich to attain the highest net postive acceptability rating among online Republicans — a status mirrored in Gallup’s most recent poll on the subject — and is now the first choice of a plurality of online conservatives, likely Iowa caucus goers, and national Republicans.? Combined with his heir apparent status in a party that almost always nominates heirs apparent, Giuliani’s frontrunner status is now as official as it could possibly be, and absent the entry of a dark-horse conservative into the race with the qualities of a Newt Gingrich, Mayor Giuliani will almost certainly garner the Republican nod in 2008.
Read on to find out how I reached these explosive conclusions.
First, let’s look at the straw poll results w/r/t acceptability ratings.? In parenthesis are the results from last month’s GOP Bloggers poll on the same subject.
GOP Bloggers Straw Poll: Net Acceptability
Giuliani: 40% (31%)
Gingrich: 38% (35%)
Romney: 34% (18%)
Allen: 26% (49%)
All other candidates received net negative acceptability ratings in both polls.
The most dramatic sea change in the past month has been the utter collapse of George Allen.? He’s gone from the candidate with the highest overall acceptability rating to a distant fourth; his support has basically been cut in half and his former supporters seem to have drifted largely to Mitt Romney and, to a lesser extent, Giuliani.? Newt’s acceptability remains largely unchanged over the past month, with the former Speaker, Romney, and Giuliani all far, far more acceptable to conservatives than any other likely candidate.
Now let’s look at the first choice of those who took part in the GOP Bloggers August poll.? Alongside these numbers in parenthesis will be the first-choice number each of these candidates received in the most recent scientific poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers, and alongside that number in brackets will be the first-choice number each candidate received in the most recent national scientific poll of GOP voters.
Republican voters: First choice for 2008
Rudy Giuliani: 24% (30%) [24%]
Newt Gingrich: 21% (N/A) [9%]
Mitt Romney: 13% (5%) [4%]
George Allen: 12% (4%) [5%]
Tom Tancredo: 7% (N/A) [N/A]
John McCain: 7% (17%) [20%]
Chuck Hagel: 3% (N/A) [N/A]
Sam Brownback: 3% (3%) [1%]
Mike Huckabee: 2% (3%) [N/A]
Bill Frist: 1% (7%) [1%]
George Pataki: 0% (3%)[N/A]
Condi Rice: N/A (N/A) [21%]
First observation: Rudy Giuliani’s numbers are unchanged regardless of whether we’re polling national Republicans and Republican “leaners,” likely Iowa caucus-goers, or online activists who care enough about conservative causes to seek out and vote in an online straw poll.? There is definitely a major conservatism differential amongst those three groups, as well as a massive name-recognition differential.? Giuliani maintains his 24%-30% first-choice support regardless of the name-recognition of the other candidates or the conservatism of the sample.? Rudy is in an excellent position to claim a huge amount of momentum in Iowa after exceeding all the expectations that the CW has set forth.
Second observation: among all groups, there’s clearly latent support for a stealth conservative candidate like Newt Gingrich or Condi Rice.? Newt received 21% first-choice votes in the GOP Bloggers poll; Condi received the same level of support in Pew’s most recent poll of national Republicans.? About a fifth of Republicans are ready to line up behind a Newt/Condi-style candidate, the problem for these folks is that Condi isn’t running and Newt is being very, very non-committal.? Presumably these voters are unable to find the particular set of qualities they’re looking for in any other likely candidate in the race, and the question of what they’ll do if Newt and Condi both say no remains unanswered.? If these?voters flock en masse to any other non-Rudy candidate, Giuliani and the choice of these voters would clear the field, creating a two-man race between Rudy and whatever conservative the Newt voters rally around.
Third observation: this poll should debunk once and for all the “name recognition” theory of many pundits.? Despite the large name recognition differential that likely exists between online activists and casual Republicans polled scientifically, almost every candidate does about the same among all groups.? Romney and Allen experience significant upticks when the name recognition factor is basically controlled for, but even those upticks don’t bring either of them anywhere near frontrunner status.? The point is, anyone saying, “oh, that Mike Huckabee (or whoever) will surge to the top once voters hear about him” has absolutely no empirical evidence to justify that claim, and lots of evidence to refute that claim.
Fourth observation: McCain polarizes Republicans on moderate/conservative lines.? He hovers around 20% support amongst casual GOPers and 7% support amongst conservative activsts.? Even if he finishes somewhere in between in Iowa, it’s hard to see where he goes from there.? Rudy will beat him; the second choice of Newt supporters will beat him; Romney or Allen may beat him.? McCain is this year’s Lieberman, and he will never be the GOP presidential nominee.
Final observation: the state of the race at this point is a clear two-person battle between Rudy Giuliani and a Newt/Condi-style conservative Republican.? We can infer from the qualities in common of Gingrich and Rice that this conservative dream candidate exhibits red-state toughness, is a good communicator, is at least as conservative as Bush, and exudes leadership.? If Newt and Condi stay out of the race, and if no dark horse with all of these qualities emerges (Tim Pawlenty?? Mark Sanford?), then one of two things will happen.? Either this bloc will unite behind someone other than Rudy in Iowa, clearing the field for a two-person race, or this bloc will disperse fairly evenly among the field, allowing Rudy to run well ahead of the pack in the early primaries and creating the illusion that Rudy is unstoppable, even though he will likely be winning pluralities and not majorities in each state.?
At this point, one thing above all is clear: Rudy Giuliani is the man to beat for the 2008 Republican nomination.
August 28th, 2006 at 1:59 pm
“The point is, anyone saying, ‘oh, that Mike Huckabee (or whoever) will surge to the top once voters hear about him’ has absolutely no empirical evidence to justify that claim, and lots of evidence to refute that claim.”
In addition all of those things that you mentioned in your article Dave, the history of the Republican nomination process also runs contrary to the “once they hear about so-and-so” argument. Republicans nominate their frontrunners. As a matter of fact, you can make the argument that frontrunning status is the single most important factor in predicting who the GOP nominee will be.
August 28th, 2006 at 2:59 pm
I want to respond to the rest of the above story:
David says this:
Dave, do some research on the efforts of people who promoted Eisenhower in early 1951. He was unable
to be involved in political stuff as NATO Commander. Likewise, Condi is holding an appointment in a Cabinet which also prevents her from getting involved in the 2008 “will she or won’t she” debate.
If you tally up a few websites, like Run Condi Run,Rice for America, Rice2008.com and Condipundit, some of these people are keeping her name in the 2008. Consider this, if President Bush says, “Hey, Condi, your nation needs and your president needs you to run” does anyone think she would say “NO”?
With all these draft Condi efforts, this is clear evidence of people supporting her and it is not some
Karl Rove plot or Republican scheme hatched in DC. She is ROCK STAR in the political world, and if Condi does decide to run, will you all accept her or not? That is the real debate. Why does she have to send out fundraising letters now or fly around to Iowa and other states instead of doing her job?
She has another year to serve as Secretary of State. Thousands of people are dedicated to her. Won’t change their
minds either as far as I have seen in recent times. The people who have switched from Condi to somebody else
are just not going to realize how the draft efforts work.
If George Allen stops out of the 2008, where do his people go?
If Gov. Huckabee gives up, can’t win in the polls, and can’t raise money, where do his people go?
Condi is the best option to consider and the efforts to get her name on primary ballots is moving forward.
People are in place in various states to start gathering names on petitions as required by law. So what is the big deal now?
The offical start in January 2007. Republicans/Conservatives who support Condi are coming forward now.
August 28th, 2006 at 5:22 pm
Republicans do nominate their front runners when they are representative of the republican base. Rudy
is not representative of that base, neither is Pataki, or Mitt Romney. They all have trouble with abortion
a core issue with R’s. Rudy is pro-gay marriage, anti guns, and has had marriage problems himself.
Most people at this time participating in the polls don’t know political stances and it is almost purely
name recognition. As time moves forward and candidates start having to answer questions from R’s andd other
candidates then the race will start to take shape. If you discount Huckabee and Allen now, you are discounting those
that actually represent the base, and probably betting on the wrong horse. To say that R’s only nominate the front runner is wrong, even if the one who is leading the pack looks to be in good shape, he might have
weak ankle (or two in Rudy’s case) that could bring them down towards the end of the race.
August 28th, 2006 at 5:36 pm
Iowa caucus voters are ignorant of the issues??? These are the people that pay attention.
The Right-Wing Blogosphere is ignorant of the issues?
This argument is past the “straining for credibility” point to be quite honest.
August 28th, 2006 at 7:25 pm
Debb,
Let’s compare apples to apples. How many times did Eisenhower say that he wasn’t interested in being president prior to 1951?
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