With?a?bevy?of polling suggesting that Republicans are prepared to take a pummeling at the polls in just three short months, how will what?happens this November impact the GOP 2008 field?
While some observers are either predicting a GOP comeback or a Democratic tsunami this fall, the bulk of the polls that I’ve seen suggest moderate Democratic gains that will leave the GOP in control of Congress, but just barely.? The most recent poll released in each of the competitive Senate races show Republicans losing seats in Montana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island while Democrats hold every single vulnerable seat.? That suggests that if the election were held today, the GOP’s 55-seat Senate majority would be reduced to a mere 50 seats, with a few caveats.? First, it’s important to remember that the Democrats would only have 48 seats to the GOP’s 50.? Bernie Sanders of Vermont would caucus with the Dems but would technically be an Independent.? So would Joe Lieberman, presuming he gets excommunicated during the coming Connecticut primary.? That should prevent the D’s from calling for a power-sharing agreement, a la 2001.? Also, Michael Steele only loses Maryland if Ben Cardin is the Democratic nominee.? If Mfume defeats Cardin for the Democratic nomination, Republican Steele likely wins the seat, meaning a pickup for Republicans.? Further, Tom Kean may be losing to Menendez in the most recent polling on the New Jersey Senate race, but the margin is so slim that the margin-of-error cannot be ignored.? As such, I predict a 50-52 seat Republican Senate resulting from this year’s elections, with the perhaps hopeful optimism that Joe Lieberman will be peeved enough about the excommunication that he’ll decide to caucus with the Republicans.
In the House, things are equally dire.? If you average the past five polls that test the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 11 percentage points.? Now, I know that the generic ballot cannot accurately be extrapolated to the number of seats a party stands to gain or lose, but I would suspect that a Democratic win of 11 percent in the House races?would be far more likely to yield a Democratic gain in the high single digits or low double digits than it would be to yield a Republican pickup, a marginal Democratic gain, or a Democratic tidal wave.? There are 232 Republican seats presently.? I suspect that number would be reduced to the lower-220s if the midterms were held today.
So, assuming that the GOP goes into 2007 with, say, 51 Senate seats and around 221 House seats, what will the reaction of the GOP establishment and primary electorate be with regard to the 2008 field?? These numbers are very similar to the congressional margins Bush started out with following the 2000 election, and there will be a real sense among the electorate that anything could happen in 2008 with margins this slim.? With a Democratic triple-play a real possibility, I suspect Republican voters will be that much more determined to go with the best quarterback they can find, and perhaps to field a candidate who makes up for any of the perceived deficiencies of the current president.? Or maybe I’m wrong, and 2006 will have no impact on 2008 whatsoever.? Feel free to share your thoughts on the subject in the comments section.
August 1st, 2006 at 12:35 am
Unfortunately, the November bloodbath will likely boost McCain the most. Although Rudy will also greatly benefit due to him being an electoral sure thing.
August 1st, 2006 at 10:11 am
Actually, I would argue the opposite point of Kavon – I think a November housecleaning (and, as we’re among friends here, has there ever been a congressional majority more deserving of a spanking than this one?) actually works to the benefit of the outsiders (Rudy, Mitt, Huckabee) in the race at the expense of the insiders (McCain, Allen). But the person I believe gains the most from such a pasting would be Newt Gingrich – as the man who *was* on the inside but was thrown under the bus but the current “Gang that couldn’t govern straight”.
If (and because of the idiocy/lunacy of the congressional Democrats it’s a mighty big “if”) the GOP takes it on the chin come the fall, it will come down to who is the most electable AND who can best rally the (likely to be rather) demoralized base. That actually also argues rather well for Newt on the latter score, and perhaps even on the former (at his low point, the GOP still did manage to keep control of congress). I find it impossible to believe a defeated, demoralized GOP base is going to go for 1) someone (McCain) who has demonstrated such willingness to throw the GOP primary voter on the street under the bus (and his latest kissy-kissy in VF should be the final requisite nail in that particular coffin), or 2) somone (Allen) who was part of the “defeated”.
If the GOP loses the senate, Frist is officially kaput and should probably rank below Chuckie “we need an immediate cease-fire in Lebanon” Hagel. Brownback is similarly done.
BTW, I’m considering (until further notice) anyone to the south of Huckabee on the power rankings to be “non serious”.
For the record, I actually think someting worse than a GOP beating will happen in November – as such a pounding can be somewhat mitigated with GWB in the White House. I suspect DaveG’s outcome (I’ll say 52 in the Senate and a razor-thin 220 in the House) to be far more likely (I predict we lose PA, RI (Laffey wins the primary, loses the general), MT and either MO or OH and pick up ONE of either MN, MI, NJ or perhaps even MD). So, we limp into 2007 with a “majority”, a dejected base, a weak lame-duck in the White House, and absolutely no clarity going into 2008. Ugh.