Quite possibly according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:
Ronald Reagan was the last candidate to make New York see red. Recent polls suggest Rudy Giuliani may be the next.
Gallup has three of four Republicans putting him at the top of their list.
He loves the Yankees, roasted peanuts (shells included) and the opera. During radiation treatments for prostate cancer, his staff played “stump the mayor” with operatic trivia.
His moderate Republican face displayed all of our anger, grief and horror on Sept. 11. A voracious reader, he turned that night to Roy Jenkins’ Winston Churchill biography, poring over its recounting of how vital Churchill was to Britain’s survival during World War II.
Today, he stands on the verge of running for president. The most formidable things he faces between now and the 2008 primaries are the hearts of conservative Republicans. His rather liberal record as a pro-choice, pro-gun-control with tolerance for gay marriage moderate could cause hair to rise on the back of the necks of the right.
Ray Hoffmann, GOP chairman in Iowa, home to the first presidential caucus, saw his state go red for the first time in 20 years in 2004. “Our Republicans are on the conservative side,” he says, “but anything is possible.”
Does Giuliani stand a chance? “Absolutely. … It is up to him and his message. … Maybe he has moderated some of his positions on social issues.”
Club for Growth President Pat Toomey agrees. When seeking his second term in Congress, Toomey moved his own position to that of pro-life. For conservatives to warm to Giuliani, he says, “is plausible. … If he starts out by offering up positions that oppose federal funding for abortions and stem-cell research, and promises a constructionist position on judges, well, then, who knows?”
“Twenty years ago, no way,” says New Hampshire GOP county chair Wayne Semprini, “but the New Hampshire Republicans of today, that’s a different story. … While there are still a good amount of conservatives here, there are a lot more moderates.”
South Carolina, the gateway to the South with that region’s first primary, is staunchly conservative. But former GOP chair Barry Wynn says it “depends on the conditions in the country. If the primary were held today, Rudy would be out in front just on leadership. … The house is on fire and we are sorely lacking firemen — Giuliani would fill that role.”
Bill Bennett, a conservative talk-show host and Bush 41 drug czar, thinks Giuliani stands a chance with conservatives: “Sure, look what is happening on the campaign trail. … His stands on social issues can be an obstacle, but not a blockade.
“Giuliani starts with more positives than McCain in states like Texas and with the Baptist belt, and the upcoming 9/11 movie will probably give him a huge boost.”
Rudyblogger, DaveG, and myself are hardly “alone in the wilderness” on Rudy’s chances should he moderate his social views.
For those that state that Rudy has no chance to win the GOP nomination in 2008, we are still waiting for some empirical evidence to back up your assertions.
RB, DaveG, and myself have backed up our claims. Show us your cards in the comments section. Go ahead…Make our day.?
July 31st, 2006 at 12:39 am
Never has a scandal-ridden GOP candidate gone on to be the nominee. Guiliani’s sleazy personal life disqualifies him. I don’t know how many times I can mention this before you guys finally get it. His personal life makes a rapproachment with the social right impossible.
It is transparent that he is only running to increase his speaking fees and to gin up book deals.
August 1st, 2006 at 1:42 am
If one wants to play this game.
George Allen — divorced, and I hear he is personally not very observant, complicating his efforts to win the religious vote. Plus, if you believe the TNR article, not a very nice guy.
John McCain — left his first wife (who waited for him through his POW days) and married a beer heiress 20 years his junior.
Newt — well, I’d get into that, but it’s late, and I wouldn’t want to bump up against any comment length restrictions at R4’08.
The only one who’s “clean” in this race is Mitt Romney, who married his high school sweetheart. Other than him, we’re destined to nominate someone “scandal-plagued.”
November 21st, 2006 at 12:40 pm
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