John McCain’s presidential dreams that is:

It’s a warm evening, even for South Carolina, even for late June. It’s especially warm ‘ sweat-dripping hot, actually ‘ inside the Lace House, a lovely antebellum home on the grounds of the governor’s mansion in downtown Columbia. But heat or no heat, a crowd of South Carolina Republican politicos, candidates, and activists has come to the Lace House to raise money for the party’s 2006 candidates ‘ and to get a firsthand look at the event’s guest of honor, Sen. John McCain. Of course they’re all quite familiar with McCain, whose 2000 presidential campaign died here after an ugly primary fight with George W. Bush. But they’ve come to see the McCain who is planning to run again in 2008. Is he the same guy? What will his campaign be like? Should they support him? Their feelings seem to be a little, well, complicated.

“Like everyone else, I’m here to support the party,” says one woman asked for her thoughts about McCain.

“Well, yes, but what about McCain?”

“Like everyone else, I’m here to support the party,” she repeats.

“Let’s not talk about McCain,” adds another attendee. And those are just the people who decided to come. When the state Republican party sent out invitations a few weeks earlier, it received quite a few responses with messages like “I can’t believe you’re inviting him to speak” and “I’m not coming.” And that was from the party’s list of loyal donors.

Even Gov. Mark Sanford ‘ a big McCain supporter in 2000 who, a couple of hours earlier, greeted the senator at the airport ‘ seems a little hesitant to talk about McCain. Ducking out to the front porch with a glass of iced tea, he begs off when asked to assess McCain’s prospects, explaining that he needs to greet a few friends. Maybe later. And then, later, Sanford offers a tepid and clich?d read on the situation. “You never say never in the world of politics,” he says. “As always, it depends on who you talk to. You can find some folks who are very receptive [to McCain] and other folks who are a lot less receptive.”

Well, yes, that’s true. In any case, Sanford isn’t ready to sing McCain’s praises this time around ‘ not yet, anyway. He’s up for reelection in November ‘ heavily favored to win a second term ‘ and he’s looking for Republican votes. Why alienate those who might be put off by an early embrace of McCain? Just look around, and you’ll find Republicans who don’t like the senator’s position on immigration. (You hear the word “amnesty” a lot.) You’ll find Republicans unhappy with his part in last year’s “Gang of 14″ deal that broke the deadlock over appeals-court nominations. (In South Carolina, the party faithful were locked and loaded for the nuclear option.) Some are still mad that McCain voted against the early Bush tax cuts. And some worry that he’s just too old for the job. (He’ll be 72 on Inauguration Day 2009, two years older than Ronald Reagan when he took office.)

Of course changes to the 2008 Primary Calender can lessen the importance of South Carolina (there is speculation that as many as 10 other states could hold their primaries on Feb 5th, 2008-the same day as SC). However, the fact remains that the Palmetto State is the great conservative filter in the Republican primaries and that no candidate that has lost South Carolina has ever gone on to win the GOP nomination.

That being said,?it is difficult to imagine McCain capturing the nomination without winning SC; and to do that he most assuredly?needs?Gov. Sanford. Having only Lindsey Graham’s support would likely reenforce concerns that some voters?already have about him.