With over 5,800 ballots cast in the online straw poll?developed by “GOP Bloggers,” conservative activists?have spoken, and the message they have sent is both similar to and dissimilar from their more casual Republican brethren who opined on the same question in a recent Gallup poll, the analysis of which can be found here.? In each poll, Republicans were asked to rank each potential 2008 candidate as acceptable or unacceptable, with the candidates then ranked according to net acceptability.? When taken together, these polls paint a very clear picture of a two-man race, as only two candidates enjoy net majority acceptability?ratings among both the conservative activists in the GOP Bloggers poll and casual Republicans in the Gallup poll.

Want to find out who these two men are?? Read on…

Gallup and GOP Bloggers essentially asked the same question, just to different groups of Republican voters.? One group, the Republican activists that participated in the GOP Bloggers poll, is more like the electorate that will go to the polls in Iowa, the first-in-the-nation caucuses that consist primarily of party activists and committed conservatives.? The other group, the mainstream, casual Republicans that Gallup polled, are probably similar to those voters who will?cast ballots?in the Republican primary in New Hampshire, with its libertarian, northeastern Republicans and its open primary accessible to GOP leaners.? Viewed separately, these polls tell us a lot about what to expect in each of these early contests.? Taken together, they allow us to gauge the sentitments of the GOP electorate in the aggregate.?

In each poll, the same nine candidates were included in the poll question, as well as a few others that were only in one poll or the other.? As such, in order to do a proper comparison, I’m giving those candidates who weren’t included in both polls a bye.? They include Tancredo and Hagel in the Bloggers poll and Cheney, Rice, and Jeb Bush in Gallup.? Is it fair to give them a bye?? I think so.? The latter three have expressed no interest in running, it’s highly doubtful Tancredo will run, and even if Hagel did run, his performance in the GOP Bloggers poll was so pathetic that he’d be a non-factor.? As such, they’re cut.

And now, without further adieu, let’s look at how GOP voters in each poll ranked the nine candidates.? No need for complex mathematics here, just a numerical rank based on net acceptability ratings.

GOP Bloggers

1) George Allen

2) Newt Gingrich

3) Rudy Giuliani

4) Mitt Romney

5) Sam Brownback

6) Mike Huckabee

7) John McCain

Bill Frist

9) George Pataki

Gallup

1) Rudy Giuliani

2) John McCain

3) George Allen

4) Newt Gingrich

5) Bill Frist

6) Mitt Romney

7) George Pataki

Mike Huckabee

9) Sam Brownback

As you can see, the top four candidates vary depending on which group of GOP voters is adjudicating the field.? Activists prefer Allen, Newt, Rudy, and Romney.? Casuals prefer Rudy, McCain, Allen, and Newt.? McCain sinks among the activsts, Romney plummets among the casuals.? Now let’s at what happens when you average the two polls together.

GOP Bloggers/Gallup Average

1) Rudy Giuliani/George Allen

3) Newt Gingrich

4) John McCain

5) Mitt Romney

6) Bill Frist

7) Sam Brownback/Mike Huckabee

9) George Pataki

I should note that John McCain and Mitt Romney would be tied if a few votes at the last minute hadn’t moved McCain past Frist in the GOP Bloggers poll.? That said, the polls speak for themselves.? Rudy Giuliani and George Allen remain the two Republicans able to register significant support both among the casual GOP masses and the movement conservative activists.? Newt is a very close third, and if he got serious about running, he could probably make it a three-man race.? It is clear though that Rudy and Allen rise above the pack and could very well garner the two tickets out of New Hampshire.

Post-New Hampshire, two’s a crowd in a fight for the presidential nomination.? If Allen, Rudy, Romney, and Newt (if he runs) all do better than McCain in Iowa, it doesn’t matter how well McCain would’ve done in the Granite State, McCain will probably never make it to New Hampshire, a la Joe Lieberman in 2004.? Similarly, despite a decent showing in Iowa, if Romney collapses in the Granite State, he too will be an also-ran, especially due to the fact that Massachusetts politicians are expected not only to place in New Hampshire, but to win it.? If Rudy, Allen, and Newt are the only candidates to do well in both Iowa and New Hampshire, that will be the trio that advances to South Carolina and Michigan.? And if Newt doesn’t run, we’re looking at the more traditional two-man race between Allen and Giuliani.

It isn’t difficult to imagine Allen and Rudy trading wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, and trading wins again in South Carolina and Michigan.? At that point, we could have a race for the ages on our hands.? I have no doubt Rudy will move?across the acceptability threshhold on cultural matters; both candidates will be pro-growth, pro-America, and I don’t think we’ll be seeing a race about disparate visions for the country.? Instead, I think an Allen/Rudy?race would be one between Fred Barnes conservatives and Bill Kristol conservatives, a race between a tempermentally conservative red-stater and a transformative conservative from a midnight-blue city.? Allen is the candidate Republicans will nominate if they want Mr. Smith to go to Washington; Rudy’s their guy if they want the Lone Ranger to ride in from the west and turn Washington on its head.? The question is, what sort of leader will America want in 2008?