From the Weekly Standard:
WHEN POLITICAL HANDICAPPERS START LAYING ODDS on a presidential election, the conversation inevitably turns to Iowa and New Hampshire. Their status as the first caucus and primary states remains critical, but as media scrutiny has amplified their importance, both have morphed into a kind of Heisenberg fishbowl. Otherwise humble locals, constantly harassed by marauding network TV crews to name their candidate, sometimes retort, “I don’t know. I haven’t met him yet.”
It’s no surprise political prognosticators are starting to look elsewhere for early clues about the race in 2008. Michigan’s status as an important early primary state has been overlooked–until now. The Democratic National Committee is currently considering moving its Michigan primary to occur in between Iowa and New Hampshire.
And Republicans have taken notice of the battleground state as well. As Michigan State Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis told the Detroit Free Press in February, “We’re much more representative of the country than either Iowa or New Hampshire. Anyone emerging out of Michigan as a winner will have a clearer picture of how viable a candidate they are.” Adds Michigan political consultant Craig Ruff, “It’s the first state with a significant industrial base to vote, so a lot of the candidates view us as kind of a bellwether.”
In fact, as Republican insiders and political consultants break out the laminated maps and dry erase markers, it’s becoming clear that the entire Republican nomination strategy may come to hinge on the battle in Michigan.
Although this is a must read 2008 article, it has one critical flaw: it assumes Rudy Giuliani is not running; and all of Rudy’s actions in the past two-months point to him running in 2008.
One other small quibble I have with this article is the assumption that a GOP candidate can lose the South Carolina Primary and still be in the running. No modern Republican candidate has ever lost the Palmetto State and gone on to win the GOP nomination; and I would not bet otherwise in 2008.
June 26th, 2006 at 10:13 am
Yes, Giuliani would be at least as big in Michigan as either Romney or McCain.
Also, I think Michigan may be moving up its primary this year to the same day as SC.
If so, that could reduce SC’s impact as a gateway primary.
June 26th, 2006 at 2:58 pm
Winning the SC GOP primary and the GOP nomination translates into being elected President. The GOp wins by following the conservative base as unabashed, unapologetic Reagan conservatives. It wins everytime its tried.
Michigan would best follow SC if it wants to retain the presidency.
June 27th, 2006 at 10:39 am
According to National Review and ABC News, Mike Huckabee is likely to win in both Iowa, where he is being very warmly received by the very religious and social conservative population, and in South Carolina, which is 75% Baptist. Huckabee, a former Southern Baptist minister and 10-year successful Governor of Arkansas is very charasmatic, well-liked, and a strong lifelong opponent of abortion and gay marriage. He’s also from Hope (yes, THAT Hope) so the MSM absolutely LOVES the idea of a story about “another man from Hope.”