(I am one of those rarest of creatures. I actually believe Giuliani is running, that he is THE frontrunner, and my other blog is aptly titled Giuliani Blog. My analysis is not without its biases — whose is? Yet I believe that regardless of which candidate we support, 2008 will be a banner year for the blogosphere. I see the media get it wrong on 2008 everyday, and not just at my guy’s expense. I’m proud to be joining this fine group of analysts who have a better understanding of how Republican politics works than the MSM ever will. Thanks to Kavon and the team for extending this great opportunity. My first post follows.)

When even Chris Cillizza jumps about the “Rudy’s running” bandwagon, you know he’s made some headway. But the Hotline remains skeptical. Here’s what they have to say about their pick of the Rudy/Newt in a combo #4 slot:

As the No. 1 and No. 3 in most primary surveys, we feel the need to include them as a combination candidate. If either runs, he is automatically top five material, so why ignore it? Until Giuliani hosts an event featuring fewer than 200 people in an early primary state, we’ll keep our powder dry. He’s testing “center of the party, center of the country”-type themes. But he has yet to convince us that, come November, Republicans will hunger for him — which can go a long way in papering over problems with his ideology.

The Hotline’s position is this: The Republican base, fresh from a whipping in the midterms, will say thanks but no thanks to Rudy, and then turn to McCain in desperation. In their McCain analysis, Chuck Todd and Marc Ambinder write:

The current conundrum is that he’s not with the party’s activist base on immigration. . So we don’t expect him to make substantial headway with those folks until after the midterms, when Republicans may well be hungry for a winner.

If this isn’t evidence that these two are in the tank for McCain, I don’t know what is. Virtually every major poll that has studied the question shows Republican primary voters hungrier for Rudy than McCain. More importantly (because this is more of a leading indicator of “smart money” support), Giuliani seems to be building up a clear electability advantage over McCain, whose ratings with Democrats and independents have been plummeting. Rudy gives conservative activists a safe and guilt-free alternative to the hated John McCain.

Plus, has the Hotline thought of this: Screwing your base in an off-year is one thing, but the defeat of the immigration bill virtually assures the subject will come up again next year. How does McCain survive leading a floor debate on immigration in the midst of his Iowa Caucus campaign?